UK Retail Sales (Nov 2019) Preview -........>

UK DATA: UK Retail Sales (Nov 2019) Preview - 0930GMT 19/12/19

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- BBG: 0.2%m/m; 2.1%y/y; Prev (Oct): -0.1%m/m, 3.1%y/y 

- Ex. Fuel: BBG: 0.4% m/m, 2.0% y/y; Prev (Oct): -0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y 

- M/M retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% in Nov following October's 0.1%

decline, which marked the third consecutive month without growth. 

- Oct's fall was driven by a sharp drop in HH goods and clothing sales, while

non-specialised stores and fuel saw the only monthly gains. 

- The annual rates for both indicators, retail sales incl. and excl. fuel are

seen slowing in Nov to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively. 

- Forward looking survey evidence provides mixed signals: 

- The VISA spending survey reported a m/m increase in expenditure, while the y/y

rate registered another decline in Nov. 

- Similarly, the BRC-KPMG shop sales monitor showed a fall on a yearly basis,

although the report notes that adjusted for the later timing of Black Friday,

growth strengthened in Nov compared to the previous month.