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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Continuing the trend of dire opinion polling for the incumbent centre-right Conservative party, the latest Savanta MRP poll for the Daily Telegraph has the party winning just 53 seats, compared to 516 out of 630 for the centre-left Labour party. If this poll was indicative of the final election result it would see for the first time ever a sitting prime minister losing their seat, with PM Rishi Sunak on course to lose his Richmond constituency.
- Telegrah: "Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former migration minister, all lose their seats on this prediction. So too do Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, and James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, meaning that three of the four great offices of state holders would be swept out."
- Such a result would give Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer essentially a clear run to implement the policy agenda of his choosing. It would also likely consign the Conservatives to at least two terms in opposition. It could even risk a Canada-style collapse of the party, as was seen following the 1993 general election in that country that resulted in the dissolution of the Progressive Conservatives and eventual replacement with the Conservative Party of Canada.
Map of 2019 GE Result and Savanta/Electoral Calculus MRP Projection
Source: Savanta, Electoral Calculus, Daily Telegraph
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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