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UK Sellside GDP Views (Low to High): 2/3

UK DATA

Deutsche Bank

  • “We expect Q2-22 GDP to land around -0.2% q-o-q, registering its first quarterly contraction since Q1-21. However, the magnitude of the drop will depend on the impact of the Jubilee weekend, with the extra Bank Holiday weighing on output. We expect June GDP to shrink by 1.2% m-o-m, slightly more than our previous estimate (due largely to the big upside surprise we saw in May). Risks to our projection are skewed to the downside”
  • “Past Jubilee celebrations have shaved off far more from output than our current projection. But our slightly stronger view on June GDP comes mainly from the higher number of trading days in the month (despite the longer Bank Holiday weekend).”

Goldman Sachs

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Deutsche Bank

  • “We expect Q2-22 GDP to land around -0.2% q-o-q, registering its first quarterly contraction since Q1-21. However, the magnitude of the drop will depend on the impact of the Jubilee weekend, with the extra Bank Holiday weighing on output. We expect June GDP to shrink by 1.2% m-o-m, slightly more than our previous estimate (due largely to the big upside surprise we saw in May). Risks to our projection are skewed to the downside”
  • “Past Jubilee celebrations have shaved off far more from output than our current projection. But our slightly stronger view on June GDP comes mainly from the higher number of trading days in the month (despite the longer Bank Holiday weekend).”

Goldman Sachs

Keep reading...Show less