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Free AccessUK Sellside GDP Views (Low to High): 2/3
Deutsche Bank
- “We expect Q2-22 GDP to land around -0.2% q-o-q, registering its first quarterly contraction since Q1-21. However, the magnitude of the drop will depend on the impact of the Jubilee weekend, with the extra Bank Holiday weighing on output. We expect June GDP to shrink by 1.2% m-o-m, slightly more than our previous estimate (due largely to the big upside surprise we saw in May). Risks to our projection are skewed to the downside”
- “Past Jubilee celebrations have shaved off far more from output than our current projection. But our slightly stronger view on June GDP comes mainly from the higher number of trading days in the month (despite the longer Bank Holiday weekend).”
Goldman Sachs
- “We expect monthly GDP in the UK to contract by 1.2%mom in June and by 0.2%qoq in Q2, in line with consensus expectations. Monthly GDP growth in the UK continues to be affected by temporary factors such as the scale-back in test and trace activity and the Platinum Jubilee bank holiday. Specifically, growth surprised strongly to the upside in May on the back of a large increase in GP appointments, and the Platinum Jubilee bank holiday is likely to act as a significant drag in June but then boost growth in July in month-on-month terms. In an underlying sense, we think growth in the UK is slowing down but remains resilient still, consistent with the moderating but still above 50 PMIs.”
Barclays
- “We expect a contraction of 1.2% m/m [for June GDP], which is in line with historical precedents... We expect a broad-based decline in activity, but more heavily tilted towards services (fc. -1.3% m/m), while we expect IP and construction to print at -0.6% m/m and -0.5% m/m respectively.”
- “While we see some upside risks to our forecast on the back of resilience seen thus far in activity over the summer, as well as in PMIs and high frequency data, the precise impact of the extra holiday on GDP is uncertain… Barring any revisions to the past month’s data, our expectation for June GDP at -1.2% m/m will lead to Q2 GDP printing at -0.2% q/q .”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.