Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Renewal Unlikely but Flows Still Possible

Gazprom is unlikely to renew its existing gas transit agreement with Ukraine which expires at the end of Dec 2024 but could still be able to book capacity through regular auctions according to Montel.

• Transit volumes are relatively small but are significant for specific countries and a halt could still support prices with an increased call on alternative supplies.
• “There is a chance that some transit arrangement could be reached, if not in the form of a renewed existing transit agreement, then in the form of arranging capacity bookings at the border under EU rules,” said Katja Yafimava at OIES. “But this would require, if not peace in Ukraine, then at least a restart of the negotiating process on the military conflict,” she added.
• LSEG agreed that the contract extension is unlikely, but gas flows could continue with capacity volumes booked at auctions.
• GTSOU strategy from 2025 onwards would be to further integrate with other neighbouring countries such as the vertical corridor, between Greece and Ukraine according to spokesman Maksym Panchenko.