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Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Refineries Prove Headache for Economy

RUSSIA

The Central Bank of Russia left its key rate unchanged at 16% as inflationary pressures remain heated, worsened by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.

  • The CBR gave no guidance on the likely direction of its next move. Sell-side broadly expect a gradual easing cycle to commence in H2.
  • Since drone strikes accelerated in January, 11% of Russia’s refining capacity has been idled, hampering supplies for key products such as diesel and gasoline.
  • Gasoline prices rose by around 12.2% in February, while fuel oil was up 28.4%, TASS said.
  • Russia imposed a gasoline export ban lasting March 1-August 31.
  • While Russia vows to ramp-up its defences, the equipment required cost 40 times more than the drones being deterred.
  • This asymmetry will only embolden the Ukrainian offensive: Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration minister calling oil refineries legitimate targets.
  • However, The US has urged Ukraine to halt refinery strikes amid wider concerns for global prices.

Source: Bloomberg

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