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Underlying Retail Sales Softer Than Headlines Suggest

CANADA DATA
  • Note that sales of autos (+1.5%) and gasoline (+3.2%) are heavy drivers behind the strength in nominal sales, which registered a surprise 0.6% M/M in September (advance had 0.0%) after -0.1% in Aug.
  • Instead, core retail sales (ex gasoline stations & fuel vendors and motor vehicle & parts dealers) declined -0.3% M/M after -0.4% M/M.
  • Overall volumes meanwhile increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% M/M after -0.5%, but again autos (+1.2%) and gasoline (+2.3%) dominated. Core retail sales volumes instead fell -0.5% M/M.
  • Despite this underlying weaker picture and the heavy decline for flash manufacturing sales in October, the paring in GoC losses has been relatively restrained with 2s and 5s still trading 2.5-2bp cheaper post-data for 4-3.5bp cheaper on the day.

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