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Underperforming Gilts, CPI In Focus Before 10Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit just 0.5-1.5bp lower today, underperforming European FI and Gilts in particular, with the latter rallying first on softer labor data before very strong demand for a 10-year auction. The limited commitment behind the move in Tsys comes ahead of today’s key CPI report for February (preview).
  • TYM4 trades at 111-20+ (+ 01+) having kept narrow ranges overnight on thin cumulative volumes of 210k. The bull cycle remains in play with resistance at 112-04+ (Mar 8 high) whilst a hawkish CPI report could bring support at 111-02 (20-day EMA) into play.
  • The 10-year auction provides interest later in the session, after yesterday's relatively well-received 3-year auction.
  • Data: CPI Feb (0830ET), Real av hourly earnings (0830ET), Monthly budget statement Feb (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open auction, 91282CJZ5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB (1130ET)
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