Unemployment Rate Dips, But Detail Mixed

Japan Dec jobs data was somewhat mixed. The jobless rate ticked down to 2.4% versus an expected 2.5% (2.5% was also the prior print). The job to applicant ratio ticked down though to 1.27, versus an expected 1.28 (1.28 was also the prior outcome).

• The dip in the unemployment rate is a little at odds with the fall in the job-to-applicant ratio, (see the chart below, note the job-to-applicant ratio is inverted on the chart). However, the dip in the unemployment rate was driven by a fall in the participation rate, down to 62.8% from 63.1% in Nov.
• The total labor force fell by 220k in Dec, versus a 300k rise in Nov. Employed people dipped -120k after a 260k rise m/m in Nov.
• In terms of job offers, there were up 0.2% m/m, while new job offers rose 3.0% m/m. This comes after falls in Nov in m/m terms. The y/y trend for both series remains negative though (-3.1% for job offers).

Fig 1: Japan Job-Less Rate & Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Inverted)