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Unemployment Remains Historically Low, But Surveys Suggest Weakening Ahead

SPAIN DATA

Spanish unemployment remains close to the lowest levels since the GFC, printing at 11.76% in Q4 '23 (vs 11.9% cons, 11.84% in Q3).

  • Looking at the details of the release, the number of employed persons fell by -19k in Q4, but this was more than offset by a -24.6k fall in those unemployed (the active population rate thus fell by -43.6k to 24,077,400 persons).
  • The largest rise in unemployment came in services (+29k), which is somewhat surprising as the total number of unemployment claims in the services sector fell by 11k between September and December '23 (as reported by the Spanish Labour ministry).
  • Looking ahead, data from INE's quarterly business confidence survey indicated upside risks to the unemployment outlook going forward. Employment expectations remained negative at -3.5 (vs -3.8 prior), with all subcomponents other than industry and services ex. transport and accommodation seeing falls. This was consistent with the expected employment components of the December European Commission survey.


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