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Unexpected Deceleration In Inflation With Sharp Slowdown In Core

SPAIN DATA

Spanish November flash HICP came in clearly below consensus estimates at 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.7% cons; 3.5% prior) and -0.6% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; 0.3% prior) including below the lowest analyst estimate (3.4%). The national CPI was also lower than consensus at 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.6% cons; 3.5% prior). On a monthly basis, CPI was -0.4% M/M (vs 0.1% cons; 0.3% prior).

  • Core CPI decelerated a further seven-tenths to 4.5% Y/Y (vs 5.0% cons; 5.2% prior) after coming down six-tenths last month.
  • Downside drivers to the headline rate came from falls in fuel and package tour prices, while electricity contributed to the upside.
  • While there are only limited details available in the flash Spanish release, overall, this month’s deceleration seems broad based, with headline and core both decreasing clearly.
  • The chart below plots headline vs core CPI:

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