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Unrounded Core PCE Estimates For Jan'24

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Looking ahead to tomorrow’s core PCE print for January, consensus sits at 0.4% M/M and the below unrounded analyst estimates average very close to that at 0.39.
  • Supercore PCE could come in even stronger, with two eyeing a 0.55% increase.
  • Estimates were lifted after PPI in particular saw portfolio management prices rise 5.5% for the largest monthly increase since Jan’21.
  • The release will include revisions through 4Q23 (including inputs from the annual CPI revisions earlier this month), which today’s Q4 release revealed will be a net uplift at 2.07% annualized vs a previously seen 1.99%.

* JPM 0.47% M/M (0.29 pre PPI)

* NWM: 0.44% M/M

* GS 0.43% M/M (0.35 pre PPI)

* Citi: 0.38% M/M, core serv ex shelter 0.55%

* BofA: 0.37% M/M

* DB: 0.36% M/M

* SocGen: 0.36% M/M

* TD: 0.36% M/M, core serv ex shelter 0.55%

* Pantheon: 0.32% M/M

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