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Upcoming Fedspeak From Each End Of Dove-Hawk Spectrum

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit marginally higher for the Sept FOMC decision (+3.5bp, +0.5bp on the day) but otherwise edge lower as they chip away at yesterday’s increase.
  • The terminal is seen with a cumulative +11.5bps to 5.45% in Nov, followed by cumulative cuts of 46bp to Jun’24 (from 45bp) and 114bp to Dec’24 (from 109bp).
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24 voter) starts at 0730ET in what is expected to be a repeat of prior remarks, with more focus later on with Goolsbee (’23) and Bowman (voter) in remarks at both 1430ET and 1530ET.
  • Expect comments from either side of the dove/hawk spectrum: Goolsbee on Aug 4 noted “promising” numbers on inflation and that should start thinking about how long to hold rates, Bowman on Aug 5 noted “some progress” on tackling inflation with more rate hikes likely needed to get inflation to 2%.

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