UPDATE: UK Data Forecasts: July UK Retail Sales Data

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - UK retail sales grew by 0.6% m/m in June, aided by the

month's warm weather, which meant on the quarter sales volumes were up 1.5% in

the second quarter of the year and sales are seen slowing in July.

     Volumes were down 1.4% q/q in the first quarter so over the first half of

the year sales activity was broadly neutral. Thursday's data, collected between

June and July, will provide the first glimpse of how things fared in the second

half of the year. 

     The story behind the numbers in June was one of strong sales at household

good stores, up 3.3% m/m, offsetting that of food sales, which fell 0.5% m/m,

with the unusually warmer June boosting clothing sales volumes (up 6.2% y/y) and

non-store retailing volumes (up 17.6% y/y).

     Analysts foresee growth in sales volumes moderating in July, with a median

forecast of 0.3% m/m pencilled in. 

     On the year, growth looks destined to come in under the level set a month

ago, with all 7 analysts who cast a forecast expecting an outturn below the 2.9%

y/y recorded in June. The MNI median for year-over-year growth is 1.4%.

     Excluding fuel, month-on-month growth is expected to come in at 0.1% for an

1.4% outturn on the year.

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                             Jul           Jul           Jul           Jul

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                  17-Aug        17-Aug        17-Aug        17-Aug

Median                       0.3           1.5           0.1           1.4

Forecast High                1.1           2.2           0.5           1.6

Forecast Low                 0.0           1.2          -0.3           1.1

Standard Deviation           0.4           0.4           0.3           0.2

Count                          7             6             6             4

Prior                        0.6           2.9           0.9           3.0

Barclays                     1.1           2.2           N/A           N/A

Capital Economics            0.8           2.0           N/A           N/A

Credit Suisse                N/A           N/A          -0.3           N/A

Commerzbank                  0.6           N/A           N/A           N/A

Investec                     0.3           1.5           0.3           1.5

Lloyds TSB                   0.3           1.4           0.2           1.3

Morgan Stanley               N/A           N/A          -0.2           N/A

Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.0           1.1

Oxford Economics             0.1           1.2           N/A           N/A

Scotia                       0.0           1.3           N/A           N/A

Societe Generale             N/A           N/A           0.5           1.6

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

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