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US 10Y Real Yields Driving Forward P/E Ratios

US
  • In the past year, we have seen that the significant liquidity injections from central banks have generated a strong recovery in risky assets, with some equity markets constantly reaching new all time highs (i.e. SP500).
  • However, some investors have been concerned that a potential tightening cycle could eventually lead to a sharp retracement as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.
  • The chart below (source: Morgan Stanley) shows that the decline in LT US real yields has also been a strong factor behind the recovery in global P/E ratios.
  • The fall in US 10Y real rate from +1% in the end of 2018 to nearly -1% in June 2021 was associated with a rise in the forward P/E ratio (MSCI global) from 13 to over 18.
  • Could rising LT bond yields become a risk for global equities in the medium term?

Source: Morgan Stanley

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