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US 5Y30Y: Further Flattening Or Short Term Consolidation?

US
  • Last week, many macro funds experienced significant losses on their 'steepening' positioning following the sharp fall in the long-end of the US curve.
  • The chart below shows that the 5Y30Y yield curve flattened by over 25bps following the hawkish tone from US policymakers.
  • Growing uncertainty over the Delta variant combined with the significant contraction in Chinese liquidity and the potential global tapering (following several months of monetary stimulus) are all important risk factors that could weigh on risky assets such as equities in the near term.
  • Hence, investors have been flying to 'safe' assets recently, which could explain the consolidation in LT US yields we have seen since the beginning of April.
  • Is the 'Steepener Trade' done, or is it simply a short term consolidation?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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