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US ADP Employment Sees Large Drag From Small Businesses

DATA REACT
  • ADP employment rises 247k in April, a 136k miss to consensus. Revisions should make up for it (24k to Mar at 479k, 115k to Feb at 601k), but the larger one in Feb likely receives less attention.
  • Those revisions plus the limited reliability of month-to-month correlation with NFPs should limit impact.
  • There was however an unusually large hit from small businesses, where jobs fell by 120k, the largest decline since May’19 and before that Feb’09 (barring the 5.2M drop in Apr’20).
  • Fed Funds futures pricing of hikes firmed modestly shortly after the release, with cumulative hikes for June sitting off earlier highs but still at 111bps.
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