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US CPI and EM Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • US: CPI on Tuesday lands after the significant trimming of Fed rate cut expectations post-NFP and the subsequent FOMC rhetoric calling for patience with cuts. Core CPI is expected at 0.3% M/M in Jan and today’s revisions shouldn’t have materially swayed these estimates. Core services were revised lower, including the “supercore” down from 4.3% to 4.0% annualized over three months. PCE supercore tracks at 2.2% annualized in December (prior to revisions). As such, specific CPI implications for PCE are again likely to help set the tone for market reaction.
  • PHILIPPINES: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to hold steady next week. Despite the recent move lower in headline and core inflation the central bank remains wary of renewed upside pressures and wants to be confident of sustaining inflation back into the 2-4% target range. Growth is folding up, which is another factor that will likely prevent a near term dovish pivot.
  • RUSSIA: The CBR is expected to keep rates unchanged at 16% when they meet on Feb 16. While the Bank may moderate its usual hawkish rhetoric, inflation remains above the upper bound of the CBR’s inflation target band with economic activity data continuing to run hot. On the other hand, the USD/RUB exchange rate has stabilised around the 90.00 level while Deputy Governor Zabotkin said recently the key rate will be cut in 2024.
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