US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: Early Tsy Auct, Cons Conf, PCE Infl, PMI

CHICAGO (MNI) - US markets resume Tuesday following extended Memorial Day

holiday weekend, focus on May Conference Board consumer confidence Tuesday, Q1

GDP second estimate on Thursday, April personal income and current dollar PCE

data Friday along with MNI Chicago PMI report for May.

Fed speaker engagements are rather limited (next blackout period is June 8-20,

FOMC on June 18-19 that includes Summary of Economic Projections.

Late Tuesday evening, US Federal Reserve Bank Vice President Simon Potter will

deliver keynote remarks at the APAC Benchmark Regulation and Migration

Conference in Hong Kong about the "Transition Away from LIBOR". 

Fed Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida will discuss "Sustaining Maximum Employment

and Price Stability" at the Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon in New

York Wednesday.

At separate events Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic moderates at

the Hope Global Forums 2019 Annual Meeting on "Assessing the Global Economy: An

Insider's Look" while New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams

discusses "Monetary Policy Theory and Practice and the Lower Bound on Interest

Rates" at a conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money,

Credit and Banking.

U.S. Treasury auctions crammed into the first two days of business: 13- and 26W

bills staggered with 2- and 5Y notes on Tuesday, 2Y FRN and 7Y note auctions on

Wednesday.

Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: US Markets Closed for Memorial Day holiday

- Tuesday: FHFA Home Price and Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes; May Conference

Board consumer confidence; Dallas Fed manufacturing index.

Morgan Stanley economists estimate the Conference Board consumer confidence

index "to increase by 3.9 to 133.1 for May. This comes despite some slight

headwinds from a decline in stock prices in the survey period."

On the other hand, Deutsche Bank estimates May consumer confidence to decline to

125.0 vs. "129.2 previously. The survey-collection period for the Conference

Board index runs through the 18th of the month, and this could capture the

initial consumer reaction to the recent weakness in risk assets."

- Wednesday: Limited data with Redbook retail sales m/m; Richmond Fed Mfg and

Dallas Fed services indexes.

- Thursday: Weekly jobless claims; Q1 GDP second estimate; Apr advance goods

trade gap, wholesale & retail inventories; NAR pending home sales index; natural

gas and crude oil stocks.

Barclays economists "expect the nominal goods deficit to remain broadly

unchanged at $71.5bn in April, driven by similar declines in imports and

exports."

- Friday: April personal income and current dollar PCE data; ISM-Milwaukee Mfg

Index; MNI Chicago PMI report for May; Michigan sentiment index; St. Louis and

NY Fed Real GDP Nowcasts. 

RBC on PCE inflation say the "evidence garnered from the April CPI suggests a

relatively soft PCE inflation print in the works. But note that the relevant PPI

inputs (which are in the health care sector) suggest the risk of a hotter PCE

than CPI is non-trivial - we think core PCE prices come in at a firmer 0.2%."

Nomura economists "forecast a modest 1.6pp decline to 51.0 in the Chicago PMI

during May despite upside surprises in the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys."

Nomura adds it's "more likely than not that the Chicago PMI will decline because

of the later survey period for the Chicago survey relative to the Philly and

Empire, suggesting more time for worsening trade tensions to seep into business

sentiment during the month."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

27-May ---- US Markets Closed for Memorial Day holiday

28-May 0900 Mar FHFA Home Price Index (0.3%, --)

28-May 0900 Q1  FHFA Quarterly Home Prices (1.12%, --)

28-May 0900 Mar Case-Shiller Home Price Index (0.2, --)

28-May 1000 May Conference Board confidence (129.2, 130.0)

28-May 1030 May Dallas Fed manufacturing index (2.0, 7.0)

28-May 1130 US TSY $40B 2Y note auction (9128286V7)

28-May 1130 US TSY $36B 26W bill auction (912796SU4)

28-May 1300 US TSY $41B 5Y note auction (9128286W5)

28-May 1300 US TSY $36B 13W bill auction (912796SF7)

29-May 0700 24-May MBA Mortgage Applications (2.4%, --)

29-May 0855 25-May Redbook retail sales m/m (1.2%, --)

29-May 1000 May Richmond Fed Mfg Index (3, 7)

29-May 1030 May Dallas Fed services index (5.7, --)

29-May 1130 US TSY $18B 2Y FRN auction (9128286Q8)

29-May 1300 US TSY $32B 7Y note auction (9128286X3)

29-May 2110 US Fed VP Simon Potter, "Transition Away from LIBOR", APAC Benchmark

Regs and Migration Conf, Hong Kong.

     30-May 0830 25-May jobless claims (211k, 215k) 

30-May 0830 Q1 GDP (2nd) (3.2%, 3.1%)

30-May 0830 Q1 GDP Price Index (0.9%, 0.9%)

30-May 0830 Apr advance goods trade gap

30-May 0830 Apr advance wholesale inventories

30-May 0830 Apr advance retail inventories

30-May 1000 Apr NAR pending home sales index (105.8, --)

30-May 1030 24-May natural gas stocks w/w

30-May 1100 24-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w

30-May 1630 29-May Fed weekly securities holdings

     31-May 0830 Apr personal income (0.1%, 0.3)

31-May 0830 Apr current dollar PCE (0.9%, 0.2)

31-May 0830 Apr core PCE price index (0.0%, 0.2)

31-May 0830 Apr total PCE price index (0.2%, --)

31-May 0900 May ISM-Milwaukee Mfg Index (55.04, --)

31-May 0945 May MNI Chicago PMI (52.6, 53.9)

31-May 1000 May Michigan sentiment index (f) (102.4, 102.0)

31-May 1100 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+2.80%, --)

31-May 1115 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+1.41%, --)

31-May 1200 NY Fed Pres John Williams, 50th Ann Journal of Money, Credit and

Banking conf: MonPol Theory and Practice / Lower Bound on Int Rates", NY

31-May 1500 Apr farm prices

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]