US Cr Mkt Week Ahead: Fed In Blackout, US Gov Data Outage Too

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 23:40 GMT Jan 20/18:40 EST Jan 20

     CHICAGO (MNI) - The ongoing limited government shutdown continues to hamper

data releases. Even Canada is feeling the effects: Statistics Canada said

Thursday that it is delaying the release of the international merchandise trade

until the U.S. Census Bureau resumes its "normal operations."

     Data from the Agriculture, Commerce and Treasury departments continue to be

delayed while funding for the Labor Department is approved through September

2019, so releases from the Department itself and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

remain unaffected.

     Morgan Stanley economists estimate the "direct impacts of the shutdown are

to reduce real quarterly GDP growth by about 0.05pp directly for every week the

government is shut down." Meanwhile, the "indirect effects are likely much

larger, with studies showing that federal workers impacted by the shutdown scale

back spending by as much as 2-4%."

     Fed speakers continued to synchronize a dovish message into the media

blackout that runs from Saturday, January 19 through January 31.

     Upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions include 13W and 26W bills Tuesday, 2-, 5-

and 7Y note auctions resume the week after.

     Salient data highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day.

- Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index and Dec Existing home sales

(5.21m); 13- and 26W bill auctions.

Nomura economists expect "a 2.8% m-o-m decline in December existing home sales

to an annualized pace of 5.17mn saar. While recent falls in mortgage rates may

reduce headwinds somewhat for this year, we continue to expect lower turnover to

keep existing sales activity muted." 

- Wednesday: Redbook retail sales m/m, Nov FHFA Home Price Index and Richmond

Fed Manufacturing Index for January.

- Thursday: Sees data picks up with weekly claims (208k), Markit Mfg and

Services index (flash), Leading indicators, Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.

Morgan Stanley economists expect "the leading index down 0.2% in December, a

reading which would point to slowing growth in the year ahead."

- Friday: GDP Nowcast from St. Louis and New York Fed'.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

21-Jan Markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day

22-Jan 0830 Jan Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (7.7, --)

22-Jan 1000 Dec Existing home sales (5.32m , 5.21m)

22-Jan 1130 US Tsys $42B 13W bill auction (912796QC6)

22-Jan 1130 US Tsys $39B 26W bill auction (912796SA8)

23-Jan 0700 18-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications (13.5%, --)

23-Jan 0855 19-Jan Redbook retail sales m/m (-1.7%, --)

23-Jan 0900 Nov FHFA Home Price Index (0.3%, --)

23-Jan 1000 Jan Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-8, --)

24-Jan 0830 19-Jan jobless claims (213k, 208k)

24-Jan 0945 Jan Markit Mfg Index (flash) (53.8, --)

24-Jan 0945 Jan Markit Services Index (flash) (54.4, --)

24-Jan 1000 Dec leading indicators (0.2%, 0.2%)

24-Jan 1030 18-Jan natural gas stocks w/w

24-Jan 1100 18-Jan crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-2.683m bbl, --)

24-Jan 1100 Jan Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (3, --)

24-Jan 1130 US Tsys 4W bill auction (912796UQ0) 

24-Jan 1130 US Tsys 8W bill auction (912796UU1)

24-Jan 1630 23-Jan Fed weekly securities holdings

25-Jan 1100 Q1 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast ( %, --)

25-Jan 1115 Q1 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (2.17%, --)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]