US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Fed Speak Resumes; NFP Rebound Friday?

CHICAGO (MNI) - U.S. returns from Labor Day holiday to abundant data in the week

ahead, culminating in the August nonfarm payrolls release Friday (195k

estimate).

U.S. rate markets have been on late summer auto-pilot for weeks, widely

expecting another 25bp rate hike at the next FOMC policy meeting on September

25-26 as equities make new all time highs and yield curves continue to hug the

bottom end of over 10 year lows.

Tuesday kicks things off with Construction Spending (0.4% est), ISM Index (57.9

est) and light vehicle sales. Wednesday's data is rather light but picks up on

Thursday with ADP private payrolls, weekly claims, factory orders and unit labor

costs.

On Friday's headline employment data, Morgan Stanley economists estimate the

"labor market to have generated 194,000 net new jobs in August, with the

unemployment rate falling to 3.8% and a 0.2% monthly increase in average hourly

earnings, holding the year-over-year rate steady at 2.7%."

On the high-side of estimates, RBC Capital Markets economists "look for the

unwind of a one-off event to help lift nonfarm payrolls to an above consensus

225k in August." while "unemployment rate to slide about 0.1ppt to 3.8%".

"Fundamentally," RBC added that "trend payroll growth looks to be about 200k"

citing:

1) "strong ADP (which has about 1/3 the volatility of monthly NFP),"

2) "initial jobless claims that just printed a new record low (back to 1948,

population-adjusted)," and 

3) "job openings that remain near all-time highs at an eye popping 6.6 million

(there are more openings than officially unemployed folks right now)."

Meanwhile, Fed speaker events that have been rather quiet since the prior week's

minutes picks up Wednesday and Thursday.

Both fielding Q&A sessions, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James

Bullard will discuss U.S. economy and monetary policy Wednesday morning (0920ET)

at a Euromoney Conferences in New York, followed by Minneapolis Federal Reserve

Bank President Neel Kashkari's town hall participation/forum Wednesday evening

(1600ET) in Bozeman, Montana. 

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will attend a fireside

chat at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Wednesday evening (1830ET).

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan, Boston Federal Reserve Bank

President Eric Rosengren and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta

Mester all speak Friday morning.

Aside from data, focus likely to revolve around Mexico/US trade and

Europe/Brexit negotiations as well emerging market (EM) contagion concerns

stemming from ongoing woes in Turkey and Argentina, the latter having less of a

broader impact. 

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate): 

- Sep 03 US markets closed for Labor Day holiday

- Sep 03-04 CANCELED Chi Fed Pres Evans, panel discussion on "Global

Macroeconomic Perspectives" Central Bank Argentina Money & Banking Conf "Dealing

with Monetary Policy Normalization," Argentina

- Sep 04 Aug NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR (9.9m, --) 

- Sep 04 Aug Markit Mfg Index (final) (55.3, --) 0945ET

- Sep 04 Aug ISM Manufacturing Index (58.1, 57.9) 1000ET

- Sep 04 Jul construction spending (-1.1%, 0.4%) 1000ET

- Sep 04 Sep IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (58.0, --) 1000ET

- Sep 05 31-Aug MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.7%, --) 0700ET

- Sep 05 Jul trade balance (-$46.3B, -$49.8B) 0830ET

- Sep 05 01-Sep Redbook retail sales m/m (0.4%, --) 0855ET

- Sep 05 StL Fed Pres Bullard, economy/policy, Real Return Euromoney Conf, Q&A,

NY 0920ET

- Sep 05 Aug ISM-NY current conditions (75.0, --) 0945ET

- Sep 05 Sep help-wanted online ratio (1.17, --) 1000ET

- Sep 05 Minn Fed Pres Kashkari town hall forum Bozeman, Montana, Q&A, 1600ET

- Sep 05 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, fireside chat Chicago Council on Global Affairs,

Q&A, 1830ET

- Sep 06 Aug challenger layoff plans (-4.2%, --) 0730ET

- Sep 06 Aug ADP private payrolls (219k, --) 0815ET

- Sep 06 01-Sep jobless claims (213k, 212k) 0830ET

- Sep 06 Q2 non-farm productivity (f) (2.9%, 3.0%) 0830ET

- Sep 06 Q2 unit labor costs (f) (-0.9%, -0.9%) 0830ET

- Sep 06 Aug Markit Services Index (final) (56.0, --) 0945ET

- Sep 06 02-Sep Bloomberg comfort index (58.3, --) 0945ET

- Sep 06 Aug ISM Non-manufacturing Index (55.7, 56.8) 1000ET

- Sep 06 Jul factory new orders (0.7%, -0.5%) 1000ET

- Sep 06 Jul factory orders ex transport (0.4%, --) 1000ET

- Sep 06 31-Aug natural gas stocks w/w (70Bcf, --) 1030ET

- Sep 06 31-Aug crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-2.57m bbl, --) 1100ET

- Sep 06 05-Sep Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Sep 07 Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan, "Energy & Economy: Charting Course Ahead" Conf,

Dallas, Tx, Q&A

- Sep 07 Boston Fed Pres Rosengren, Eco Conf: Consequences of Long Spells Low

Int Rates", Boston 0830ET

- Sep 07 Aug nonfarm payrolls (157k, 195k) 0830ET

- Sep 07 Aug private payrolls (170k , 190k) 0830ET

- Sep 07 Aug unemployment rate (3.9%, 3.8%) 0830ET

- Sep 07 Aug average hourly earnings (0.3%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Sep 07 Aug average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs) 0830ET

- Sep 07 Clev Fed Pres Mester, "Reality Check from Mkts", Boston Fed Eco Conf,

Q&A. 0900ET

- Sep 07 Q2 Service Revenue (-1.2%, --) 1000ET

- Sep 07 Q3 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- Sep 07 Q3 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

- Sep 07 Aug Treasury STRIPS Holdings 1500ET

- Sep 08 Boston Fed Pres Rosengren and co-authors to present paper on "Some

Unpleasant Stabilization Arithmetic", Boston Fed Economic Conf: Consequences

Long Spells Low Int Rates, Boston. 1045ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

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