US Data Forecast Focus: July Industrial Prod Seen +0.3%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% 

in July after a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose 

by 16,000 in July, while auto production jobs up 2,000 and the factory 

workweek was steady at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 60.6 

in July from 62.4 in the previous month. Utilities production is 

expected to rebound in the month after a flat June reading, while mining 

production is forecast to post another increase. Capacity utilization is 

forecast to rise modestly to 76.7% from 76.6% in June. 

     Analysts underestimated industrial production in June, as 

manufacturing and mining production both rose solidly and utilities 

production was flat. Recent July misses have been to the low side eight 

times in the last 10 years, so an upside surprise is possible again this 

month. 

Industrial Production:     Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.4     0.6     0.2     0.3     0.3

 High                         0.6     0.9     1.0     0.5     0.5     0.5

 Low                          0.0     0.1     0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                 0.0     0.5     1.0     0.0     0.4    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.2    -0.1    -0.4     0.2    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                       0.5     0.5     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.3

 High                         1.0     0.8     0.5     0.4     0.9     0.5

 Low                          0.3     0.2     0.0    -0.2    -0.1     0.1

Actual result                 0.9     0.6     0.0     0.4     0.6     0.7

 vs median forecast          -0.4    -0.1     0.3    -0.1    -0.2    -0.4

Capacity Utilization:      Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Forecast:

 Median                      75.5    76.1    76.4    76.8    76.8    76.7

 High                        75.8    76.5    76.7    77.0    76.9    76.9

 Low                         75.2    75.7    76.2    76.6    76.6    76.6

Actual result                75.4    76.1    76.7    76.6    76.6    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.1     0.0    -0.3     0.2     0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                      77.0    79.2    77.9    79.2    78.1    75.6

 High                        77.5    79.5    78.1    79.5    79.9    75.8

 Low                         76.8    79.0    77.7    78.7    77.6    75.4

Actual result                77.5    79.3    77.6    79.2    78.0    75.9

 vs median forecast          -0.5    -0.1     0.3     0.0     0.1    -0.3

                           Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   13.5    12.9    12.9    12.7    12.8    12.9

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.1    -0.1     0.3     0.0     0.6     0.1

Factory Jobs (000's)           22      11       9       0      12      16

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)        -6       2      -1       1       0       2

Mining Jobs (000's)            11       7      10       6       6       1

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                57.7    57.2    54.8    54.9    57.8    56.3

  ISM Mfg Production         62.9    57.6    58.6    57.1    62.4    60.6

  Phila. Fed Index           43.3    32.8    22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5

  Empire State Index         18.7    16.4     5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8

  Chicago PMI                57.4    57.7    58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9

  Factory Workweek           40.7    40.6    40.7    40.7    40.9    40.9

  Factory Overtime            3.3     3.3     3.2     3.3     3.3     3.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]