US Data Forecast Focus: July Sales Seen +0.3%, Also Ex-Auto>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% in July 

after a 0.2% decline in June. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales rose modestly in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices 

pulled  back further in mid-July compared with one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.3% excluding motor vehicles after June's 

0.2% decline and analysts see a strong reading for the control group 

after recent soft gains.  

     Analysts overestimated retail sales in each of the last three 

months, with soft readings seen for a number of categories in June. 

Misses on past July data have been tilted toward overestimates, with 

high misses for overall retail sales in four of the last five years and 

overestimates for ex-motor vehicle sales in each of the last three 

years. 

                         Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.1    -0.3     0.6     0.0     0.1     0.3

 Range High                 0.2     0.2     0.8     0.2     0.2     1.0

 Range Low                 -0.1    -0.6     0.4    -0.3     0.0     0.2

Actual result               0.1    -0.2     0.4    -0.3    -0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                     0.6     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.6     0.5

 Range High                 0.9     0.6     0.8     0.4     1.0     0.9

 Range Low                  0.3    -0.2     0.1     0.0     0.4     0.2

Actual result               0.5     0.8     0.2     0.0     0.6     0.0

 vs median forecast:        0.1    -0.5     0.1     0.2     0.0     0.5

                         Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.1     0.5     0.1     0.2     0.3

 Range High                 0.2     0.4     0.9     0.4     0.3     1.0

 Range Low                  0.1    -0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result:              0.2     0.0     0.3    -0.3    -0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast:        0.0     0.1     0.2     0.4     0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jul-11  Jul-12  Jul-13  Jul-14  Jul-15  Jul-16

 Median                     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.5     0.1

 Range High                 0.5     0.7     1.0     0.5     0.9     0.4

 Range Low                  0.0    -0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.0

Actual result               0.5     0.8     0.5     0.1     0.4    -0.3

 vs median forecast:       -0.2    -0.5    -0.1     0.3     0.1     0.4

                                Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17   Jun-17  Jul-17

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    4.3     4.3     4.2     4.0     4.2

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, sa   8.6     8.6     8.5     8.8     8.7

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.294   2.392   2.340   2.329   2.260

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      4.3    -2.2    -0.5    -3.0

Consumer confidence               124.9   119.4   117.6   117.3   121.1

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        13.8    14.0    12.5    12.6    12.7

 Home                               6.2     6.4     6.1     6.0     6.7

 Major appliance                   51.5    52.9    48.5    52.1    46.1

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]