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US DATA: GDPNow Lifted To 3.1% In Highs For Q3 Tracker

US DATA
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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up to 3.1% from 2.9% with its Sep 18 update, for a continuation from the 3.0% in Q2.
  • It’s come mainly after national account revisions and monthly PCE, where a “decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real gross private domestic investment growth and the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth.”
  • The quarterly contribution from personal consumption has been trimmed to 2.22pps from 2.47pps in inter-update estimates just two days ago, although that’s still vey healthy and follows the 1.9pp in Q2 and 1.5pp in Q1 after Thursday’s revisions.
  • Compared to realized Q2 growth, the main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.5pp after +0.2pp) whilst government spending should also soften (+0.3pp after +0.6pp)

  • In addition to consumption, a sequential boost is seen from net exports (flat after -0.5pps).

    Source: Atlanta Fed

     

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up to 3.1% from 2.9% with its Sep 18 update, for a continuation from the 3.0% in Q2.
  • It’s come mainly after national account revisions and monthly PCE, where a “decline in the nowcast of real personal consumption expenditures growth was more than offset by increases in the nowcasts of real gross private domestic investment growth and the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth.”
  • The quarterly contribution from personal consumption has been trimmed to 2.22pps from 2.47pps in inter-update estimates just two days ago, although that’s still vey healthy and follows the 1.9pp in Q2 and 1.5pp in Q1 after Thursday’s revisions.
  • Compared to realized Q2 growth, the main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.5pp after +0.2pp) whilst government spending should also soften (+0.3pp after +0.6pp)

  • In addition to consumption, a sequential boost is seen from net exports (flat after -0.5pps).

    Source: Atlanta Fed