US NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.8 (FCST: 48.9); OCT 48.5

MNI:Largest Canada New Home Price Dip Since `09 Led By Toronto

CANADIAN OCT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.7%, 4TH STRAIGHT INCREASE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, EU Due Monday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

MNI: CANADIAN SEP RETAIL SALES +0.4%; SALES EX-AUTOS/PARTS +0.9%

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: GDPNow Revised Up Further To 3% For Q3

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up further to 3.0% from 2.5% on Sep 9 and 2.1% in its Sep 4 update.
  • The upward revision was driven by a combination of today’s retail sales, IP and business inventories data.  
  • It currently implies no easing from GDP growth of 2.8% in Q2, prior to which it averaged 2.1% in 1H24 after a particularly strong 4.1% in 2H23 as the economy continues to not show signs of imminent recession.
  • Latest contributions see consumer spending adding a strong 2.5pps in Q3 vs the 1.6pps in Q2 and an average 1.3pps in 1H24 after the 2.15 in 2H23.
  • The main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.3pps after the -0.1pp in Q2) and net exports (-0.4pps after -0.8pps).
  • Changes in inventories will also offer a large drag in sequential terms, no longer seen dragging but still only adding 0.05pps after some volatile quarters with +0.8pp in Q2 and -0.4pp in Q1.

 

162 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker for Q3 has been revised up further to 3.0% from 2.5% on Sep 9 and 2.1% in its Sep 4 update.
  • The upward revision was driven by a combination of today’s retail sales, IP and business inventories data.  
  • It currently implies no easing from GDP growth of 2.8% in Q2, prior to which it averaged 2.1% in 1H24 after a particularly strong 4.1% in 2H23 as the economy continues to not show signs of imminent recession.
  • Latest contributions see consumer spending adding a strong 2.5pps in Q3 vs the 1.6pps in Q2 and an average 1.3pps in 1H24 after the 2.15 in 2H23.
  • The main outright drags are seen coming from residential investment (-0.3pps after the -0.1pp in Q2) and net exports (-0.4pps after -0.8pps).
  • Changes in inventories will also offer a large drag in sequential terms, no longer seen dragging but still only adding 0.05pps after some volatile quarters with +0.8pp in Q2 and -0.4pp in Q1.