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US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 
Weekly Jobless Claims (thousands)
 Thursday, December 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     
                            Median:                          Dec14 Dec07 Nov30
Initial Claims                 252K                             --  252K  203K
     Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to stay at the elevated 252K
level for the week ending December 14. 
November Existing Home Sales (millions)
 Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 a.m. ET                 
                            Median                           Nov19 Oct19  Sep19
Sales                         5.45                              --  5.46   5.38
     Comments: November existing home sales are anticipated to reach 5.45m, down
just 0.01m from October.
Q3 GDP (final estimate)
 Friday, December 20th at 8:30 a.m. ET                            
                            Median                           Q3(f)  Q3(p)    Q2 
GDP                            2.1                             --    2.1    2.0 
Price Index                    1.8                             --    1.8    2.4 
     Comments: The final Q3 GDP estimate is projected to remain unchanged from
the second estimate at 2.1%, still above the final Q2 GDP estimate of 2.0%.
Despite a slowdown in global manufacturing which has bogged down business
spending and export growth, gains in consumer spending and rising consumer
confidence are likely to prop up the headline figure. The Q3 GDP price index is
also expected to remain unchanged from the second estimate at 1.8%, a slowdown
from 2.4% in the second quarter.
November Personal Income (percent change)
 Friday, December 20th at 10:00 a.m. ET                      
                            Median                            Nov19 Oct19 Sep19
Personal income                0.3                               --  flat    0.2
Current dollar PCE             0.4                               --   0.3    0.3
PCE Price index                0.2                               --   0.2   flat
Core PCE price index           0.1                               --   0.1   flat
     Comments: Personal income in October is expected to grow at 0.3% following
strong employment numbers from November. Current dollar personal consumption
expenditures are expected to grow 0.4%. PCE headline inflation is expected to
rise by 0.2% and core by 0.1%, same as in October. Upward revisions to wage
data, which were included in last month's payrolls, also suggest a positive
revision to October's flat current dollar PCE growth. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email:

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