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US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts.
Construction Spending (percentage change)
 Monday, Feb. 3 at 10:00 ET
                                 Median               Dec19  Nov19  Oct19
Total Spending                    +0.5%                  --  -0.6%  -0.8%
     Comments: A 0.5% increase in construction spending is expected in December,
rebounding from three straight months of declines ending with a -0.6% drop in
ISM Manufacturing Index for January
 Monday, Feb. 3 at 10:00 ET
                                 Median               Jan20  Dec19  Nov19
Activity Index                     48.4                  --   47.2   48.1   
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to stay in contractionary
territory for the fifth straight month but rise slightly to 48.4 in January
after falling to 47.2 in December. January's ISM manufacturing index will face
headwinds from the halting of Boeing's 737 Max production, but should see
upsides from the energy and agricultural sectors.
Factory Orders for December (percent change) 
 Tuesday, Feb. 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     
               Median                                 Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  
New Orders      +0.9%                                    --  -0.7%  +0.2%  
Ex-Transport       --                                    --  +0.3%  +0.3%  
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to jump +0.9% after a -0.7% decrease
in November. The December report should receive a boost from new orders for
durable goods, which came in at a +2.4% increase from November.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January
 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        
               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19  
ISM NMI          55.0                                    --   55.0   53.9   
     Comments: The Institute for Supply Management's monthly non-manufacturing
index is expected to stay steady at 55.0 in January, signaling continued
expansion in the services sector.
ADP Private Payrolls for January(change in thousands) 
 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 8:15 a.m. ET                        
               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19
Payrolls        +150k                                    --  +202k    67k   
     Comments: ADP private payrolls is expected to gain a healthy 150,000 in
January, stepping down from December's 202k jump. 
Trade in Goods and Services for December (deficit, billion $) 
 Wednesday, Feb. 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            
               Median                              Dec19   Nov19    Oct19    
Trade Gap     -$47.4b                                --  -$43.1b  -$47.2b 
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to -$47.4
billion in December from $43.1 billion in November. December's monthly advance
economic indicators report showed the goods trade deficit increasing by more
than expected. November saw the end of four straight months of a narrowing trade
deficit, and December is likely to widen the gap once more.
Preliminary Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)
 Thursday, Feb.6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          
                   Median                              4Qp    3Qf    2Qf 
Productivity        +1.4%                               --  -0.2%  +2.5%  
Unit Labor Cost     +0.9%                               --  +2.5%  +0.1%  
     Comments: Non-farm productivity is expected to rise by +1.4% after falling
-0.2% in the third quarter, which was the first decline in nearly four years.
Unit labor cost is expected to increase by +0.9%, which would mark the sixth
straight quarter of increases.
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)
 Thursday, Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. EST                         
                    Median                           Feb01 Jan25  Jan18       
Claims:                 --                              --  216k   223k   
     Nonfarm Payrolls for January(change in thousands) 
 Friday, January 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   
               Median                                 Jan20  Dec19  Nov19   
Payrolls         160k                                    --   145k   266k   
Private Jobs     150k                                    --   139k   254k   
Jobless Rate     3.5%                                    --   3.5%   3.5%   
Hrly Earnings    0.3%                                    --   0.1%   0.2%   
Avg Wkly Hrs     34.3                                    --   34.3   34.4   
     Comments: U.S. employment growth likely picked up in January to 160k from
December's 145k. Weekly initial jobless claims have fallen toward historic lows
and continue to show a robust labor market. However, excess labor supply is
shrinking as prime-age worker participation returns to pre-recession high and as
slowing labor force growth puts more downside pressure on jobs numbers. Still,
160,000 is comfortably above the "break-even pace" of around 100,000 and should
bolster the decline in the unemployment rate, which should continue at its
half-century low of 3.5%. Average hourly earnings is expected to rise by +0.3%,
accelerating from previous months. 
     Wholesale Trade for December(percent change) 
 Friday, Feb. 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          
               Median                                Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  
Sales              --                                   --  +1.5%  +0.1%  
     Consumer Credit for December (dollar change, billions) 
 Friday, Feb. 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          
               Median                                Dec19  Nov19   Oct19  
Cons Cred     +$16.5b                                  -- +$12.5b +$18.9b    
     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $16.5 billion in
December after a $12.5 billion gain in November.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email:

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