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US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic indicators
provided by Bloomberg forecasts. The comment section presents the key elements
behind the median forecasts.
January Construction Spending (percentage change)
 Monday, March 2 at 10:00 ET
                                 Median              Jan20  Dec19  Nov19 
Total Spending                    +0.6%                 --  -0.2%  +0.7% 
     Comments: A +0.6% increase in m/m construction spending is expected in
January, up from -0.2% in December.
ISM Manufacturing Index for February
 Monday, March 2 at 10:00 ET
                                 Median              Feb20  Jan20  Dec19  
Activity Index                     50.5                 --   50.9   47.2     
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to stay in expansionary
territory for the second straight month but pull back slightly to 50.5 in
February. The manufacturing sector has faced headwinds from supply chain
disruptions related to the coronavirus as well as Boeing's 737 Max production
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February
 Wednesday, March 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        
               Median                                Feb20  Jan20  Dec19   
ISM NMI          55.0                                   --   55.5   55.0    
     Comments: The Institute for Supply Management's monthly non-manufacturing
index is expected to fall back to 55.0 in February to match the December level,
signaling ongoing growth in the U.S. services sector.
Final Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)
 Thursday, March 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          
                   Median                              4Qf    3Qf    2Qf 
Productivity        +1.4%                               --  -0.2%  +2.5%  
Unit Labor Cost     +1.5%                               --  +2.5%  +0.1%  
     Comments: Final non-farm productivity is expected to rise by +1.4%
(unchanged from the preliminary estimate) after falling -0.2% in the third
quarter, which was the first decline in nearly four years. Unit labor cost is
expected to increase by +1.5%, up slightly from the +1.4% preliminary estimate,
and would mark the sixth straight quarter of increases.
Initial Jobless Claims (thousands)
 Thursday, March 5 at 8:30 a.m. EST                        
                   Median                            Feb29  Feb22 Feb15         
Claims               215k                               --   219k  211k       
Comments: Jobless claims for the week ending February 29 are expected to come in
at 215,000, above the 210k four-week moving average identified by the Department
of Labor in its most recent jobless claims report.
Factory Orders for December (percent change) 
 Thursday, March 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     
               Median                                 Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  
New Orders         --                                    --  +1.8%  -1.2%  
Ex-Transport       --                                    --  +0.6%  +0.2%  
Trade in Goods and Services for January(deficit, billion $) 
 Friday, March 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            
               Median                             Jan20   Dec19    Nov19        
Trade Gap     -$48.5b                                --  -$48.9b  -$43.7b  
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to shrink slightly to
-$48.5 billion in January from -$48.9 billion in December. The goods deficit
shrank unexpectedly in January, according to an advance estimate Friday,
reflecting a large drop in imports and smaller drop in exports.  
Nonfarm Payrolls for January(change in thousands) 
 Friday, January 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   
               Median                                 Feb20  Jan20  Dec19     
Payrolls         175k                                    --   225k   147k     
Private Jobs     158k                                    --   206k   142k     
Jobless Rate     3.5%                                    --   3.6%   3.5%   
Hrly Earnings    0.3%                                    --  +0.2%  +0.1%  
Avg Wkly Hrs     34.3                                    --   34.3   34.3   
     Comments: Payrolls probably expanded by +175k in February (and +158k for
private jobs) following a surprise surge of +225k in January. However, coming
quarters may see a deceleration in job growth as excess labor supply tightens.
Analysts will be watching for early signs of a slowdown in hiring due to
uncertainty amid the global coronavirus outbreak. U.S. Census hiring should also
prop up headline job growth somewhat.
Wholesale Trade for December(percent change) 
 Friday, March 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          
               Median                                Jan20  Dec19  Nov19    
Sales              --                                   --  -0.7%  +0.9%   
Consumer Credit for January (dollar change, billions) 
 Friday, March 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          
               Median                               Jan20   Dec19    Nov19     
Cons Cred     +$17.0b                                  --  +$22.1b  +$11.8b     
     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise to a $17.0 billion pace
in January after recording $22.1 billion in December.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email:

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