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     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
ISM Manufacturing Index (index)
 Monday, June 1 at 10:00am (ET)
                                                          Actual
                                 Median             May20  Apr20  Mar20   
Activity Index                     43.5                --   41.5   49.1       
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb to 43.5 while
remaining in contractionary territory amid ongoing nationwide shutdowns and
global supply chain disruptions. Last month's reading marked the lowest reading
since April 2009, during the global financial crisis, when the index reached
39.9.
Construction Spending (percentage change)
 Monday, June 1 at 10:00am (ET)
                                                          Actual
                                 Median             Apr20  Mar20  Feb20  
Total Spending                    -6.0%                --   0.9%  -1.3% 
     Comments: Construction spending for April is expected to show a -6.0% drop,
which would mark the largest m/m decrease in the history of the Census Bureau's
report, which stretches back over a half-century.
Factory Orders (percent change) 
 Wednesday, June 3 at 10:00am (ET)                   
                                                          Actual 
               Median                               Apr20  Mar20  Feb20    
New Orders     -14.0%                                  -- -10.4%   flat     
Ex-Transport       --                                  --  -3.6%  -0.9% 
Comments: New factory orders are expected to drop -14.0% in April, which would
mark the largest m/m drop in the history of the report following last month's
historic drop. New orders for durable goods dropped by -17.2% this past week,
according to the advance report released by the Census Bureau.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
 Wednesday, June 3 at 10:00am (ET)                        
                                                           Actual 
               Median                                May20  Apr20  Mar20     
ISM NMI          44.1                                   --   41.8   52.5     
     Comments: The ISM Non-manufacturing index is expected to climb to 44.1,
remaining in contractionary territory for the second straight month and only the
second month in contractionary territory since December 2009. The April reading
marked the index's lowest level since March 2009 when it registered at 40.1.
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                     
                                                           Actual
                   Median                            May30  May23  May16       
Claims             1.800m                               -- 2.123m 2.446m     
     Comments: The jobless claims surge is slowly subsiding, but it remains at
record-high levels with next week's new claims expected to reach 1.800 million.
In the wake of weakened consumer demand, lockdowns, and continued social
distancing, close to 40 million claims have already been filed. New hires in
mid-May could alleviate some of the pressure on new jobless claims as some
states began to relax social-distancing measures during that period.
Trade in Goods and Services (deficit, billions) 
 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                            
                                                           Actual 
               Median                              Apr20    Mar20    Feb20      
      
Trade Gap     -$45.2b                                 --  -$44.4b  -$39.8b     
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to increase slightly to
-$45.2 billion in April from -$44.4 billion in March. The advance report showed
the goods trade gap grew to -$69.7 billion in April after reaching a revised
March reading of -$65.0 billion, outpacing market expectations of a -$65.0
billion gap. The growing advance goods deficit was driven by a -25.2% m/m drop
in exports, bolstered by manufacturing downtime, alongside a -14.3% m/m decline
in imports given continued, multi-week lags in international shipping.  
Final Q4 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)
 Thursday, June 4 at 8:30am (ET)                          
                                                           Actual
                   Median                             1Q(f)  4Q(f)   3Q(f) 
Productivity        -2.5%                              --   +1.2%  -0.3%  
Unit Labor Cost     +4.8%                              --   +0.9%  +0.2%  
     Comments: Final non-farm productivity is expected to remain unchanged from
preliminary estimates, showing a -2.5% drop in productivity and a +4.8% increase
in unit labor cost. The preliminary report released in early May was the largest
quarterly drop since the 4Q 2015 when output per hour fell -2.9% percent. The
preliminary report also showed unit labor costs rising at their highest rate
since 1Q 2019 when they increased by +5.7%. 
     
Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands and millions) 
 Friday, June 5 at 8:30am (ET)                                
                                                            Actual 
                 Median                             May20    Apr20    Mar20     
 
Payrolls        -7.575m                                -- -20.500m  -0.881m     
 
Private Jobs    -7.500m                                -- -19.520m  -0.853m     
 
Jobless Rate      19.6%                                --    14.7%     4.4% 
Avg Hrly Earnings  1.0%                                --    +4.7%    +0.5%    
Avg Wkly Hrs       34.3                                --     34.2     34.1    
     Comments: Markets expect nonfarm payrolls to have plummeted by -7.575
million in May, still an improvement from the record-shattering 20.5 million
jobs lost in April. Many states reopened in late April and early May, putting
many Americans back to work for the first time in more than a month, but initial
unemployment claims have remained highly elevated, nearing 12 million during the
reference period for Friday's report. The unemployment rate in May is expected
to reach 19.6%, rivaling Great Depression-era joblessness. The labor force
participation rate should rise as social distancing measures are rolled back. 
Consumer Credit for (dollar change, billions) 
 Friday, June 5 at 3:00pm (ET)                          
                                                             Actual
               Median                                Apr20    Mar20   Feb20     
 
Cons Cred     -$17.5b                                   --  -$12.0b +$22.3b     
     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to fall by -$17.5 billion in
April after falling by -$12.0 billion in March. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]