US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 12/16:06 EST Oct 12

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Retail and Food Sales for September (percent change)                    

 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median       Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Retail Sales   +1.9%    +1.4% to +2.7%                 --  -0.2%  +0.3%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.9%    +0.7% to +1.9%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rebound by 1.9% in          

September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and           

hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that     

gasoline prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier.   

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.9% excluding motor vehicles after   

August's modest 0.2% gain, owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to     

building materials sales after the storms.                              

Consumer Price Index for September (percent change)                     

 Friday, October 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 CPI           +0.6%     +0.5% to +0.7%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.6% in September following a

0.4% energy-related rise in August. Analysts expect energy prices to    

move even higher after August's 2.8% surge, as the hurricanes impact,   

particularly on gasoline, continued. The core CPI is forecast to rise   

0.2% for a second straight month.                                       

Business Inventories for August (percent change)                        

 Friday, October 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 Inventories   +0.7%       +0.4% to +0.8%               --  +0.2%  +0.5%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.7% in August.

Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the month, while

wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and the advance report pointed to a 0.7%

gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks   

for a 0.7% increase for business inventories, in line with the median   

forecast. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.5% and wholesale    

sales surged by 1.7%, while retail trade sales fell 0.3% in the advance 

retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.7% rise in        

business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade sales      

number.                                                                 

University of Michigan Survey for October (preliminary)                 

 Friday, October 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Oct17p  Sep17  Aug17

 Consumer Sent    95.5     94.0 to 97.0                 --   95.1   95.3

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to

rise modestly to a reading of 95.5 in early-October from 95.1 in        

September, as the impact of the hurricanes appears to be smaller than   

previously expected.                                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com