Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Construction Spending for June (percent change)                         
 Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Construction   +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.9%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.2% in June
after a 0.4% May increase. Housing starts fell sharply in the month,    
suggesting private residential building dipped after a May gain.        
ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        
 Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Mfg ISM         59.5     58.0 to 59.7                  --   60.2   58.7
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a  
reading of 59.5 in July after rising to 60.2 in June. Regional          
conditions data have been mixed, while the Markit flash estimate rose   
modestly to 55.5 from 55.4 in June.                                     
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for July (mln units, saar)                 
 Wednesday, August 1                                                    
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 Sales Ex GM    ---        --- to ---                   --  10.3m   9.9m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow modest  
in July after accelerating in June. Seasonal adjustment factors will    
be an addition to July unadjusted sales after subtracting from them     
in June.                                                                
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 28 week                                  
 Thursday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul28  Jul21  Jul14
 Weekly Claims   219k     215k to 220k                  --   217k   208k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by only 2,000 to 219,000 in the July 28 week after a rebound of 9,000 to
a still-low 217,000 level in the previous week. The four-week moving    
average would fall by 3,250 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in  
the June 30 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast
is correct and there are no revisions.                                  
Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                
 Thursday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 New Orders     +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.9%                 --  +0.4%  -0.4%
 Ex Transport   --          -- to --                    --  +0.7%  +0.9%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.4% in June.     
Durable goods orders rose by 1.0% in the month on a solid gain in       
transportation orders, but nondurables orders are expected to pull back 
sharply after an energy-related surge in May. Durable orders excluding  
transportation were up 0.4%, suggesting factory orders excluding        
transportation should post another gain.                                
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                 Jul18  Jun18  May18 
 Payrolls       +190k    +182k to +207k                --  +213k  +244k 
 Private Job    +200k    +183k to +208k                --  +202k  +239k 
 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.8% to 4.0%                 --   4.0%   3.8% 
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.3% 
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5 
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 4.0% in June. 
Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, but the         
year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average workweek
is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.         
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Jun18   May18   Apr18
 Trade Gap    -$46.1b  -$47.0b to -45.4b              -- -$43.1b -$46.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.1
billion in June from $43.1 billion in May. The impact of the tariffs may
be seen in force in the data starting this month. The advance estimate  
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $68.3 billion, as export fell  
and imports rose.                                                       
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    
 Friday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18
 ISM NMI         58.7     57.9 to 59.5                  --   59.1   58.6
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fell to a  
reading of 58.7 in July from 59.1 in June. The Philadelphia             
nonmanufacturing index rose to 44.3, while the flash Markit Services    
index fell slightly to 56.2.                                            
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.