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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Construction Spending for June (percent change)
Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
Construction +0.2% -0.1% to +0.5% -- +0.4% +0.9%
Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.2% in June
after a 0.4% May increase. Housing starts fell sharply in the month,
suggesting private residential building dipped after a May gain.
ISM Manufacturing Index for July
Wednesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
Mfg ISM 59.5 58.0 to 59.7 -- 60.2 58.7
Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a
reading of 59.5 in July after rising to 60.2 in June. Regional
conditions data have been mixed, while the Markit flash estimate rose
modestly to 55.5 from 55.4 in June.
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for July (mln units, saar)
Wednesday, August 1
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
Sales Ex GM --- --- to --- -- 10.3m 9.9m
Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow modest
in July after accelerating in June. Seasonal adjustment factors will
be an addition to July unadjusted sales after subtracting from them
in June.
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 28 week
Thursday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul28 Jul21 Jul14
Weekly Claims 219k 215k to 220k -- 217k 208k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by only 2,000 to 219,000 in the July 28 week after a rebound of 9,000 to
a still-low 217,000 level in the previous week. The four-week moving
average would fall by 3,250 in the coming week as the 232,000 level in
the June 30 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast
is correct and there are no revisions.
Factory Orders for June (percent change)
Thursday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
New Orders +0.4% +0.2% to +0.9% -- +0.4% -0.4%
Ex Transport -- -- to -- -- +0.7% +0.9%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.4% in June.
Durable goods orders rose by 1.0% in the month on a solid gain in
transportation orders, but nondurables orders are expected to pull back
sharply after an energy-related surge in May. Durable orders excluding
transportation were up 0.4%, suggesting factory orders excluding
transportation should post another gain.
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)
Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
Payrolls +190k +182k to +207k -- +213k +244k
Private Job +200k +183k to +208k -- +202k +239k
Jobless Rate 3.9% 3.8% to 4.0% -- 4.0% 3.8%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.3% -- +0.2% +0.3%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in July
after a stronger-than-expected 213,000 rise in June. The unemployment
rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% after rebounding to 4.0% in June.
Hourly earnings are forecast to post another 0.2% gain, but the
year/year rate could decline on base effects, while the average workweek
is expected to stay at 34.5 hours for the sixth straight month.
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)
Friday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jun18 May18 Apr18
Trade Gap -$46.1b -$47.0b to -45.4b -- -$43.1b -$46.2b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $46.1
billion in June from $43.1 billion in May. The impact of the tariffs may
be seen in force in the data starting this month. The advance estimate
of the Census goods trade gap widened to $68.3 billion, as export fell
and imports rose.
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July
Friday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jul18 Jun18 May18
ISM NMI 58.7 57.9 to 59.5 -- 59.1 58.6
Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fell to a
reading of 58.7 in July from 59.1 in June. The Philadelphia
nonmanufacturing index rose to 44.3, while the flash Markit Services
index fell slightly to 56.2.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.