US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for August (mln units, saar)               

 Tuesday, September 4                                                   

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Sales Ex GM                                            --  10.0m  10.3m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rebound      

modestly in August after slowing in July. Seasonal adjustment factors   

will be a subtraction from August unadjusted sales after adding to them 

in July.                                                                

Construction Spending for July (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, September 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Construction   +0.4%    -1.1% to +0.5%                 --  -1.1%  +1.3%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rebound by 0.4% in  

July after a 1.1% June decline. Housing starts partially rebounded in   

the month, suggesting private residential building should do the same   

after a June decline.                                                   

ISM Manufacturing Index for August                                      

 Tuesday, September 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Mfg ISM         57.9     57.0 to 58.0                  --   58.1   60.2

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline       

further to a reading of 57.9 in August after slipping to 58.1 in July.  

Regional conditions data have been mixed. The MNI Chicago PMI data      

showed mild deceleration, but remained very strong. The flash Markit    

estimate fell to 54.5 from 55.3.                                        

Trade in Goods and Services for July (deficit, billion $)               

 Wednesday, September 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                Jul18   Jun18   May18

 Trade Gap    -$49.8b  -$50.2b to -$49.5b             -- -$46.3b -$43.2b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen sharply 

to $49.8 billion in July from $46.3 billion in June. The advance        

estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened to $72.2 billion, as     

export fell and imports rose.                                           

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 1 week                              

 Thursday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep01  Aug25  Aug18

 Weekly Claims   212k     212k to 212k                  --   213k   210k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 1,000 to 212,000 in the September 1 week after a modest increase of  

3,000 to 213,000 in the previous week. Any comparison to a year ago is  

tainted by the hurricanes that hit in early-September 2017. The         

four-week moving average would fall by 500 in the coming week as the    

214,000 level in the August 4 week rolls out of the calculation,        

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

Nonfarm Productivity for Second Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)    

 Thursday, September 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                   Median           Range           2Q18r   2Q18p   1Q18

 Productivity       +3.0%      +2.8% to +3.1%          --   +2.9%  -0.3%

 Unit Labor Costs   -0.9%      -1.0% to -0.8%          --   -0.9%  +2.3%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up very   

slightly to a 3.0% pace from the 2.9% gain in the preliminary estimate  

due to a small upward adjustment in output. Unit labor costs are        

expected to be revised unrevised from the 0.9% drop in the preliminary  

estimate.                                                               

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for August                                  

 Thursday, September 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 ISM NMI         56.8     56.0 to 58.0                  --   55.7   59.1

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rise to a  

reading of 56.8 in August from 55.7 in July. The Philadelphia           

nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.7, while the flash Markit Services    

index dipped to 55.2.                                                   

Factory Orders for July (percent change)                                

 Thursday, September 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 New Orders     -0.5%    -0.6% to -0.4%                 --  +0.7%  +0.4%

 Ex Transport    --        --  to --                    --  +0.4%  +0.8%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 0.5% in July.     

Durable goods orders declined by 1.7% in the month on a sharp drop in   

transportation orders, while nondurables orders are expected to decline 

on softer energy prices. Durable orders excluding transportation were up

0.2%, so total factory orders excluding transportation are expected to  

rise slightly.                                                          

Nonfarm Payrolls for August (change in thousands)                       

 Friday, September 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Aug18  Jul18  Jun18 

 Payrolls       +195k    +166k to +220k                --  +157k  +248k 

 Private Job    +190k    +163k to +195k                --  +170k  +234k 

 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.8% to  3.9%                --   3.9%   4.0% 

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.3%  +0.1% 

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to  34.5                --   34.5   34.6 

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 in      

August after a weaker-than-expected 157,000 rise in July. The           

unemployment rate is expected to fell further to 3.8% after dipping to  

3.9% in July. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.3%    

gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5     

hours                                                                   

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]