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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 14/17:06 EST Sep 14
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Empire State Index for September (diffusion index)
 Monday, September 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Empire Index      23.8    18.0 to 25.0                 --   25.6   22.6
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall modestly to a 
reading of 23.4 in September after rising to 25.6 in August.
Housing Starts for August (annual rate, million) 
 Wednesday, September 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Starts    1.245m      1.220m to 1.253m                 -- 1.168m 1.158m 
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is 
expected to rise further to a 1.245 million annual rate in August after 
moving up slightly in July. Multi-family building is seen as key upside 
factor. The NAHB index fell to 67 in August. As inventories remain 
tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost output. The 
pace of building permits is expected to rise to a 1.320 million annual 
rate from the revised 1.303 million rate in July. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 15 week                                
 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Sep15  Sep08  Sep01
 Weekly Claims   207k     205k to 208k                  --   204k   205k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 3,000 to a still-low 207,000 level in the September 15 employment 
survey week after a decrease to 204,000 in the previous week, a 49-year 
low. Claims were at a level of 210,000 in the August 18 employment 
survey week. The four-week moving average would fall by 750 in the 
coming week as that 210,000 level rolls out of the calculation, assuming 
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. There will be no 
impact from Hurricane Florence in this week's data, but it may begin to 
show up in the following week's data. 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for September (diffusion index)
 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Phila Fed         19.6    18.0 to 21.1                 --   11.9   25.7
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to a 
reading of 19.6 in September after falling sharply to 11.9 in August. 
Existing-home Sales for August (annual rate)                           
 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:
                 Median       Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18 
 Home Resales     5.36m  5.32m to 5.46m                 --  5.34m  5.38m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to tick up 
very slightly to a 5.36 million annual rate in August after slipping 
further to a 5.34 million rate in July. Pending home sales fell by 0.7% 
in July, a negative sign for existing home sales. The supply of homes 
for sale remains much too low to match demand and bring down prices. 
Leading Indicators for August (percent change)
 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:
                 Median         Range                Aug18  Jul18  Jun18
 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.5% to +0.5%               --  +0.6%  +0.5%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 
0.5% in August. Positive contributions are expected from gains in stock 
prices, the ISM new orders index, and consumer expectations, and 
slightly lower initial jobless claims. A shorter factory workweek could 
provide some offset.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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