US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 13 week                                

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Oct15  Oct06  Sep29

 Weekly Claims   210k     205k to 216k                  --   214k   207k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 4,000 to a 210,000 level in the October 13 employment survey 

week after an increase of 7,000 to a still-low 214,000 level in the 

previous week. While the impact of Hurricane Florence should continue to 

move out of the data, Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10 and 

should lift initial claims further and impact the survey week for 

payrolls. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,000 in the coming 

week as the recent low 202,000 level in the September 15 employment 

survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 

correct and there are no revisions. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Phila Fed         18.5    16.2 to 20.0                 --   22.9   11.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to slip to a 

reading of 18.5 in October after rebounding to 22.9 in September.

Leading Indicators for September (percent change)

 Thursday, October 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:

                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.4% to +0.6%               --  +0.4%  +0.7%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 

0.5% in September. Positive contributions are expected from increases in 

stock prices and consumer expectations. 

Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                           

 Friday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                 Median       Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 

 Home Resales     5.27m   5.25m to 5.38m                --  5.34m  5.34m

    Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 

5.27 million annual rate in September after holding steady in August. 

Pending home sales fell by 1.8% in August, a negative sign for existing 

home sales.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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