Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)
 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 
 New Orders      Flat    -0.6% to +2.0%                 --  -4.3%   Flat 
 Ex-Transport   +0.4%    -0.6% to +0.7%                 --  +0.2%  -0.5%
     Comments: Durable goods are expected to be unchanged in November 
after a revised 4.3% decline in October. Boeing reported 51 orders in 
November, up sharply from 18 orders in October, but seasonal adjustment 
issues could translate to another transportation decline. Durable goods 
orders excluding transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.4%. 
GDP for Third Quarter (third estimate)
 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  3Q18t  3Q18s   2Q18
 GDP            +3.5%    +3.5% to +3.6%                 --  +3.5%  +4.2% 
 Chain Prices   +1.7%    +1.7% to +1.7%                 --  +1.7%  +3.0%
     Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 3.5% 
increase, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 
1.7% pace. Looking ahead, analysts see fourth quarter GDP growth 
accelerating from the third quarter. 
Personal Income for November (percent change)                          
 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2% 
 Spending       +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.4%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%
 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by only 0.3% in 
November after a 0.5% gain in October. Payrolls rose by only 155,000, 
hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and average weekly hours fell to 34.4 
hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.6% 
October gain, but with some upside risk. Total retail sales were up only 
0.2% in the month after a 1.1% October gain. Sales were also up 0.2% in 
November excluding a 0.2% gain in motor vehicle sales, but there were 
solid gains in most of the other categories, especially nonstore 
retailers. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and 
food services were up 0.9% after a 0.7% gain in October. The core PCE 
price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in November which would 
allow the year/year rate to tick to 1.9% from 1.8% in the previous 
month. Core prices were up only 0.1% month/month in November 2017. 
University of Michigan Survey for December (final)          
 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:
                Median        Range                 Dec18f Dec18p  Nov18
 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.5 to 97.5                  --   97.5   97.5
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 
down to a reading of 97.0 from 97.5 in November.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.