US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)

 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18 

 New Orders      Flat    -0.6% to +2.0%                 --  -4.3%   Flat 

 Ex-Transport   +0.4%    -0.6% to +0.7%                 --  +0.2%  -0.5%

     Comments: Durable goods are expected to be unchanged in November 

after a revised 4.3% decline in October. Boeing reported 51 orders in 

November, up sharply from 18 orders in October, but seasonal adjustment 

issues could translate to another transportation decline. Durable goods 

orders excluding transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.4%. 

GDP for Third Quarter (third estimate)

 Friday, December 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  3Q18t  3Q18s   2Q18

 GDP            +3.5%    +3.5% to +3.6%                 --  +3.5%  +4.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.7%    +1.7% to +1.7%                 --  +1.7%  +3.0%

     Comments: Third quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at a 3.5% 

increase, while the chain price index is expected to be unrevised at a 

1.7% pace. Looking ahead, analysts see fourth quarter GDP growth 

accelerating from the third quarter. 

Personal Income for November (percent change)                          

 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.5%  +0.2% 

 Spending       +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.4%                 --  +0.6%  +0.2%

 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by only 0.3% in 

November after a 0.5% gain in October. Payrolls rose by only 155,000, 

hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and average weekly hours fell to 34.4 

hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.4% after a 0.6% 

October gain, but with some upside risk. Total retail sales were up only 

0.2% in the month after a 1.1% October gain. Sales were also up 0.2% in 

November excluding a 0.2% gain in motor vehicle sales, but there were 

solid gains in most of the other categories, especially nonstore 

retailers. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and 

food services were up 0.9% after a 0.7% gain in October. The core PCE 

price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in November which would 

allow the year/year rate to tick to 1.9% from 1.8% in the previous 

month. Core prices were up only 0.1% month/month in November 2017. 

University of Michigan Survey for December (final)          

 Friday, December 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Dec18f Dec18p  Nov18

 Consumer Sent    97.0    96.5 to 97.5                  --   97.5   97.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 

down to a reading of 97.0 from 97.5 in November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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