US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for January (index)

 Tuesday, January 29 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Confidence     124.0    122.0 to 128.1                 --  128.1  136.4

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall 

sharply to a reading of 124.0 in January after a decline in December. 

The Michigan Sentiment index plunged to 90.7 in early-January from 98.3 

in December. 

Employment Cost Index for Fourth Quarter (percent change)

 Thursday, January 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median       Range                   4Q18   3Q18   2Q18

 ECI              +0.8%   +0.7% to +0.8                 --  +0.8%  +0.6%

     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise 0.8% in the fourth quarter, 

the same as the previous quarter. Wage and salary growth should again be 

the key factor. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 26 week                                

 Thursday, January 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan26  Jan19  Jan12

 Weekly Claims   218k     210k to 225k                  --   199k   212k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound to 218,000 in the January 26 holiday week after a decline of 

13,000 to a 199,000 level in the previous week, the lowest level in 

almost 50 years. The level of filings by Federal workers, which lags by 

a week, more than doubled to 25,419 in the January 12 week and is likely 

to move even higher. These data do not feed into the headline number, 

but private contractors that were furloughed due to the shutdown may 

feed into the headline figure soon. Even with a partial rebound, the 

four-week moving average would still tumble in the coming week as the 

233,000 level in the December 29 week rolls out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

MNI Chicago Report for January (index)                                 

 Thursday, January 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 MNI Chicago     60.8     59.0 to 62.5                  --   63.8   63.5

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall to 60.8 in 

January after a small increase to a revised 63.8 reading in December. 

Other regional data already released have suggested mixed conditions, 

with the Empire State index down, the Philadelphia Fed index up, the 

Richmond reading up to a smaller decline and the Kansas City index 

virtually steady. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for January (mln units, saar)                  

 Friday, February 1                                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Sales Ex GM                                            --   9.9m   9.8m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 

hold steady around a 9.9 million pace in January after a small rebound 

in December, but with some upside risk. Seasonal adjustment factors will 

be a large addition to January unadjusted sales after being a 

subtraction in December. Offsetting that will be a delay of any 

purchases by furloughed government employees that might have otherwise 

occurred in January. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for January (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, February 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Payrolls       +167k    +135k to +190k                 --  +312k  +176k

 Private Jobs   +175k    +150k to +180k                 --  +301k  +173k

 Jobless Rate    3.9%     3.8% to 4.0%                  --   3.9%   3.7%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.4%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                  --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 167,000 in 

January after a much stronger-than-expected 312,000 increase in 

December, leaving the two-month average above 200,000. The private 

payrolls measure is expected to show a 175,000 gain. Now that furloughed 

federal government employees are assured of receiving backpay (the law 

was passed on January 16), the impact on the government jobs category 

will be minimal as BLS will count the sidelined employees as working. 

So, much of the impact from the shutdown will be seen for government 

contractors, not the government employees themselves. 

     The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from 3.9% in the 

previous month. A large impact will be seen from the government workers, 

who will be considered as temporarily laid off for the purposes of 

household employment, cutting the measure of employed and boosting the 

level of unemployed. This will temporarily lift the unemployment rate, 

with a likely reversal in February now that the shutdown has ended. 

     Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in the 

previous month, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 

34.5 hours. Earnings and hours worked for government employees are not 

included in the data, but the impact of the shutdown could still be seen 

for government contractors. Annual revisions to the establishment survey 

will be released with this month's data. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for January                                       

 Friday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Mfg ISM         54.1     53.8 to 55.0                  --   54.3   58.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip slightly 

to a reading of 54.1 in January after falling to a revised 54.3 in 

December. Regional conditions data have been mixed, while the flash 

Markit estimate rose to 54.9 from 53.8 in December. 

University of Michigan Survey for January (final)          

 Friday, February 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:

                Median        Range                 Jan19f Jan19p  Dec18

 Consumer Sent    91.0    90.5 to 91.3                  --   90.7   98.3

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up 

to a reading of 91.0 in January from the 90.7 preliminary estimate, 

keeping the index well below the 98.3 reading in December due to 

concerns about the government shutdown.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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