US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 23 week                                

 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Feb23  Feb16  Feb09

 Weekly Claims   220k     210k to 226k                   --  216k   239k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 4,000 to 220,000 in the February 23 week after a decrease of 23,000 

to a 216,000 level in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment 

difficulties in January and February make claims a relatively unreliable 

indicator. The four-week moving average would fall sharply this week as 

the recent high 253,000 level in the January 26 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

GDP for Fourth Quarter (initial estimate)

 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  4Q18i   3Q18   2Q18

 GDP            +2.5%    +1.8% to +3.0%                 --  +3.4%  +4.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.7%    +1.5% to +2.1%                 --  +1.8%  +3.0%

     Comments: Analysts see a 2.5% increase for fourth quarter GDP in 

the initial estimate, much slower than the 3.4% gain in the third 

quarter. The very weak December retail sales took the wind out of 

expectations for a solid PCE reading for the quarter, but it is still 

expected to be a positive factor. Capital spending should also add to 

GDP, but missing December data for business inventories and 

international trade present a forecast risk. 

MNI Chicago Report for February (index)                                 

 Thursday, February 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 MNI Chicago     57.5     56.0 to 60.0                  --   56.7   63.8

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 57.5 in 

February after a decline to 56.7 in January. Other regional data already 

released have suggested mixed conditions, with the Empire State, 

Richmond Fed, and Dallas Fed measures up, but the Philadelphia Fed index 

falling into negative territory. 

Personal Income for January (percent change)                          

 Friday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.6%                 --     --  +0.2% 

 Spending (Dec) -0.1%    -0.6% to +0.3%                 --     --  +0.4%

 Core Prices(Dec) +0.2%  +0.1% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in January, 

reflecting a spike in employment, steady hours worked, and a small gain 

in hourly earnings. The backlogged December personal income is expected 

to rise by 0.2%. Only December PCE data will be reported due to a lack 

of Census data and it is expected to decline by 0.1% reflecting the 

retail sales plunge. Core prices are seen up 0.2%. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for February                                       

 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Mfg ISM         55.5     53.0 to 57.5                  --   56.6   54.3

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall back to a 

reading of 55.5 in February after sharp movements in the previous two 

months. Regional conditions data have suggested a mixed picture. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for February (mln units, saar)                  

 Friday, March 1                                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18

 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.6m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 

Ford is expected to rebound modestly in February after a dip in January. 

Seasonal factors will be a smaller addition to unadjusted claims than 

they were in the previous month, but the end of the government shutdown 

should allow furloughed government employees to make purchases that they 

delayed in January. 

University of Michigan Survey for February (final)          

 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

                Median        Range                 Feb19f Feb19p  Jan19

 Consumer Sent    95.8    93.0 to 96.6                  --   95.5   91.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 

reading of 95.8 in February from the 95.5 preliminary estimate. This 

would keep the index well above the 91.2 reading in January.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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