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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Weekly Jobless Claims for February 23 week                                
 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Feb23  Feb16  Feb09
 Weekly Claims   220k     210k to 226k                   --  216k   239k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 4,000 to 220,000 in the February 23 week after a decrease of 23,000 
to a 216,000 level in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment 
difficulties in January and February make claims a relatively unreliable 
indicator. The four-week moving average would fall sharply this week as 
the recent high 253,000 level in the January 26 week rolls out of the 
calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 
revisions. 
GDP for Fourth Quarter (initial estimate)
 Thursday, February 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  4Q18i   3Q18   2Q18
 GDP            +2.5%    +1.8% to +3.0%                 --  +3.4%  +4.2% 
 Chain Prices   +1.7%    +1.5% to +2.1%                 --  +1.8%  +3.0%
     Comments: Analysts see a 2.5% increase for fourth quarter GDP in 
the initial estimate, much slower than the 3.4% gain in the third 
quarter. The very weak December retail sales took the wind out of 
expectations for a solid PCE reading for the quarter, but it is still 
expected to be a positive factor. Capital spending should also add to 
GDP, but missing December data for business inventories and 
international trade present a forecast risk. 
MNI Chicago Report for February (index)                                 
 Thursday, February 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 MNI Chicago     57.5     56.0 to 60.0                  --   56.7   63.8
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise to 57.5 in 
February after a decline to 56.7 in January. Other regional data already 
released have suggested mixed conditions, with the Empire State, 
Richmond Fed, and Dallas Fed measures up, but the Philadelphia Fed index 
falling into negative territory. 
Personal Income for January (percent change)                          
 Friday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jan19  Dec18  Nov18
 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.6%                 --     --  +0.2% 
 Spending (Dec) -0.1%    -0.6% to +0.3%                 --     --  +0.4%
 Core Prices(Dec) +0.2%  +0.1% to +0.2%                 --     --  +0.1%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in January, 
reflecting a spike in employment, steady hours worked, and a small gain 
in hourly earnings. The backlogged December personal income is expected 
to rise by 0.2%. Only December PCE data will be reported due to a lack 
of Census data and it is expected to decline by 0.1% reflecting the 
retail sales plunge. Core prices are seen up 0.2%. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for February                                       
 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Mfg ISM         55.5     53.0 to 57.5                  --   56.6   54.3
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall back to a 
reading of 55.5 in February after sharp movements in the previous two 
months. Regional conditions data have suggested a mixed picture. 
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for February (mln units, saar)                  
 Friday, March 1                                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.6m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 
Ford is expected to rebound modestly in February after a dip in January. 
Seasonal factors will be a smaller addition to unadjusted claims than 
they were in the previous month, but the end of the government shutdown 
should allow furloughed government employees to make purchases that they 
delayed in January. 
University of Michigan Survey for February (final)          
 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
                Median        Range                 Feb19f Feb19p  Jan19
 Consumer Sent    95.8    93.0 to 96.6                  --   95.5   91.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 
reading of 95.8 in February from the 95.5 preliminary estimate. This 
would keep the index well above the 91.2 reading in January.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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