US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Retail and Food Sales for April (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Retail Sales  +0.2%      Flat to +0.4%                 --  +1.6%  -0.2%

 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.7%     +0.4% to +0.9%                 --  +1.2%  -0.2%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by only 0.2% in April 

after a 1.6% rebound in March. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 

vehicle sales were much slower in April, while AAA reported that 

gasoline prices rose further in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.7% excluding motor vehicles after a 1.2% 

increase in March, with gasoline prices the key factor. 

Empire State Index for May (diffusion index)

 Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Empire Index     8.0       5.0 to 10.5                 --   10.1    3.7

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slip back to a 

reading of 8.0 in May after rising to 10.1 in April. 

Industrial Production for April (percent change)

 Wednesday, May 15 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Ind Prod      Flat      -0.5% to +0.3%                 --  -0.1%  +0.1% 

 Cap Util     78.7%      78.4% to 79.0%                 --  78.8%  79.0%  

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in April 

after a 0.1% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by only 4,000 in 

April, while auto production jobs fell by 2,000 and the factory workweek 

was unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index fell to 52.3 in 

the current month from 55.8 in the previous month. Utilities production 

is expected to rise further in the month after a 0.2% increase in March, 

as weather was unseasonably warm in April. Mining production is forecast 

to rebound modestly after a 0.8% decline in the previous month. Capacity 

utilization is forecast to tick down further to 78.7% after falling 

slightly to 78.8% in March. 

Business Inventories for March (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, May 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:

              Median           Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19

 Inventories   Flat       -0.1% to +0.1%                --  +0.3%  +0.9%

     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to be flat 

in March, in line with a MNI calculation after the wholesale release. 

Factory inventories were already up 0.4% in the month, while wholesale 

inventories fell 0.1% and the advance reading for retail inventories was 

a 0.3% decline. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.7%, wholesale 

sales jumped by 2.3%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was 

a 1.7% gain, adding up to a 1.5% gain for business sales before any 

retail sales revision. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 11 week                                

 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  May11  May04  Apr27

 Weekly Claims  220k      210k to 230k                  --   228k   230k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 8,000 to 220,000 in the May 11 week after declining by only 2,000 to 

228,000 in the previous week. A surge in claims in New York in the 

previous week is likely to be reversed in the coming week. The four-week 

moving average would rise by 6,750 this week as the decade-low 193,000 

level in the April 13 week rolls out of the calculation but could begin 

to fall back next week. 

Housing Starts for April (annual rate, million) 

 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Starts    1.200k      1.130k to 1.274k                 -- 1.139m 1.142m 

     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to rebound to a 

1.200 million pace in April after falling further to 1.139 million in 

March, while building permits are expected to slip to a 1.280 million 

pace from the 1.288 million revised March pace. Unadjusted starts were 

down 13.0% from a year earlier in March, a further sign that home 

building has stagnated. 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for May (diffusion index)

 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Phila Fed        10.0      4.0 to 12.0                 --    8.5   13.7

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a 

reading of 10.0 in May after dipping to 8.5 in April. 

Leading Indicators for April (percent change)

 Friday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                 Median         Range                Apr18  Mar19  Feb19

 Leading Index   +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.4%  +0.1%

     Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by 0.2% in April, 

with positive contributions from lower jobless claims and higher stock 

prices and consumer expectations, offset by a sharp decline in the ISM 

new orders index. 

University of Michigan Survey for May (preliminary)          

 Friday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                Median        Range                  May19p  Apr19 Mar19

 Consumer Sent   97.5     96.0 to 99.0                   --   97.2  98.4

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 

reading of 97.5 in early-May from 97.2 in April.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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