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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 31/17:06 EST May 31
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Construction Spending for April (percent change)                        
 Monday, June 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Construction  +0.4%     -0.4% to +1.0%                 --  -0.9%  +0.7%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in 
April after falling in March. Housing starts rose sharply in the month, 
so residential construction could rebound in the month after a string of 
declines. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for May                                       
 Monday, June 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Mfg ISM        52.9      51.7 to 54.0                  --   52.8   55.3
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise slightly 
to a reading of 52.9 in May after an April decline. Regional conditions 
data have been mixed, while the flash Markit reading declined. The MNI 
Chicago index rose in the month. 
Factory Orders for April (percent change)                             
 Tuesday, June 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 New Orders     -1.0%    -1.1% to -0.3%                 --  +1.9%  -1.0% 
 Ex-Transport                                           --  +0.7%  +0.3%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to fall by 1.0% in April, 
reflecting a 2.1% decline in durable goods orders, offset by an expected 
further gain in nondurable goods orders. Annual revisions released on 
May 16 will be included in the data. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for May
 Wednesday, June 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 ISM NMI        55.9      54.7 to 56.2                  --   55.5   56.1
     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to rise to 
55.9 in May after dipping to 55.5 in April. The flash Markit services 
estimate fell to 50.9, while the Dallas services reading fell below 
the breakeven point to -0.3 while the Richmond Fed services reading fell 
to 1 from 26.
Weekly Jobless Claims for June 1 week                                
 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun01  May25  May18
 Weekly Claims  216k      215k to 220k                  --   215k   212k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 1,000 to 216,000 in the June 1 holiday-shortened week after rising 
by 3,000 to 215,000 in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment issues 
tend to appear in holiday weeks, so a surprise is possible. The 
four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 this week as the 228,000 
level in the May 4 week rolls out of the calculation. 
Trade in Goods and Services for April (deficit, billion $)           
 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Apr19   Mar19   Feb19
 Trade Gap    -$50.7b  -$53.0b to -$50.1b             -- -$50.0b -$49.3b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $50.7 
billion in April after a very small widening in March. The advance trade 
report released on May 30 showed a modest widening in the Census trade 
gap. 
Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 
 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                   Median           Range          1Q19r   1Q19p    4Q18
 Productivity       +3.5%      +3.3% to +3.6%         --   +3.6%   +1.3% 
 Unit Labor Costs   -0.9%      -1.4% to -0.6%         --   -0.9%   +2.5%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised down 
slightly to a 3.5% pace, reflecting a small downward adjustment to 
output growth. Unit labor costs are expected to be unrevised from a 
0.9% pace of decline. 
Nonfarm Payrolls for May (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, June 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Payrolls       180k      145k to 195k                  --  +263k  +189k
 Private Jobs   172k      155k to 175k                  --  +236k  +179k
 Jobless Rate   3.6%      3.6% to 3.8%                  --   3.6%   3.8%
 Hrly Earnings  0.3%      0.2% to 0.3%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%
 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5      34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 180,000 in May 
after a stronger-than-expected 263,000 rise in April. The unemployment 
rate is expected to remain at a 50-year low 3.6% in the previous month 
on a shrinkage in the labor force. Hourly earnings are forecast to 
increase by 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to rise to 34.5 
hours after falling to 34.4 hours in April. 
Consumer Credit for April (dollar change, billions)                   
 Friday, June 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Apr19   Mar19   Feb19
 Cons Cred   +$14.9b +$13.8b to +$16.0b               -- +$10.3b +$15.5b
     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $14.9 billion 
in April after a smaller $10.3 billion gain in March. Retail sales 
declined in the month on both a sharp decline in auto sales and soft 
readings in other categories outside of gasoline station sales.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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