Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
New Home Sales for May (annual rate)                                    
 Tuesday, June 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 New Homes      682k      640k to 715k                  --   673k   723k
     Comments: The pace of new home sales is forecast to rise to 682,000
SAAR in May after a dip in April. The April pace was significantly      
higher than its year-ago level, but supply growth was even stronger.    
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June (index)                   
 Tuesday, June 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Confidence    131.0     125.0 to 135.0                 --  134.1  129.2
     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall to a
reading of 131.0 in June after rising further to 134.1 in May. The      
preliminary Michigan Sentiment index fell to 97.9 in June from 100.0 in 
the previous month.                                                     
Durable Goods Orders for May (percent change)                           
 Wednesday, June 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 New Orders    -1.0%     -8.5% to +1.6%                 --  -2.1%  +1.7%
 Ex-Transport  +0.1%     -0.5% to +0.8%                 --   Flat  -0.5%
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 1.0% in May,
with aircraft the key reason for the second month in a row. Boeing      
reported no new orders in May, and additionally received multiple       
cancellation, so a huge plunge in the transportation category is very   
likely. Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.1% outside of the
transportation component.                                               
Weekly Jobless Claims for June 22 week                                  
 Thursday, June 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:      
               Median         Range                  Jun22  Jun15  Jun08
 Weekly Claims  219k      215k to 230k                  --   216k   222k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 3,000 to 219,000 in the June 22 week after a decrease to 216,000 in  
the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise by only 250  
this week as the 218,000 level in the May 25 survey week rolls out of   
the calculation.                                                        
GDP for First Quarter (third estimate)                                  
 Thursday, June 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  1Q19t  1Q19s   4Q18
 GDP           +3.2%     +2.9% to +3.3%                 --  +3.1%  +2.2%
 Chain Prices  +0.8%     +0.8% to +0.8%                 --  +0.8%  +1.7%
     Comments: The third estimate of first quarter GDP is expected to be
largely overlooked, with revisions likely to be very modest and leave   
overall GDP at a 3.1% gain. Analysts are looking ahead to the second    
quarter, when growth is expected to slow dramatically.                  
Personal Income for May (percent change)                                
 Friday, June 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Income        +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.1%
 Spending      +0.3%     +0.1% to +0.6%                 --  +0.3%  +1.1%
 Core Prices   +0.2%     +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in May, as   
payrolls rose by only 75,000, the average workweek was unchanged, and   
hourly earnings posted a trend 0.2% gain. PCE is expected to be rise by 
0.3%, based on stronger retail sales data in May and an upward revision 
to sales in the previous month. Core PCE prices are expected to rise by 
0.2% in May, which should keep the year/year rate at 1.6%. Core PCE     
prices rose by 0.2% in May 2018.                                        
MNI Chicago Report for June (index)                                     
 Friday, June 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET                          Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 MNI Chicago    54.1      52.0 to 56.0                  --   54.2   52.6
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall back slightly to 
a reading of 54.1 in June after a modest gain to 54.2 in May. Other     
regional data already released have suggested a considerable slowdown in
the month.                                                              
University of Michigan Survey for June (final)                          
 Friday, June 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
                Median        Range                  Jun19f Jun19p May19
 Consumer Sent   98.0     97.2 to 100.0                  --   97.9 100.0
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised   
up very slightly to a reading of 98.0 in June after slipping to 97.9 in 
the preliminary estimate.                                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.