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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Sep 29/17:06 EST Sep 29
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.    
Construction Spending for August (percent change)                       
 Monday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
                Median         Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 Construction    +0.4%      +0.1% to +0.5%             --   -0.6%  -1.4%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in August.
Housing starts fell 0.8% in the month, suggesting private residential   
building could slow modestly.                                           
ISM Manufacturing Index for September                                   
 Monday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median       Range                     Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Mfg ISM        58.0    57.0 to 59.0                    --   58.8   56.3
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to dip modestly  
to a reading of 58.0 in September after rising to 58.8 in August. The   
impact of Hurricane Harvey could be fully felt in this month's data.    
However, regional conditions data have suggested solid growth, as did   
the flash Markit estimate. Even the Dallas Fed manufacturing data       
released on September 25 indicated stronger growth despite the impact of
Hurricane Harvey, as respondents noted only a modest impact from the    
storm statewide and a stronger impact in the Gulf region.               
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for September (mln units, saar)            
 Tuesday, October 2                                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Dom Sales      13.6m      13.6m to 13.6m               --  12.3m  12.9m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rebound      
sharply in September after falling in August to 12.3 million. Seasonal  
adjustment factors will add to unadjusted sales in September after      
subtracting in August.                                                  
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September                               
 Wednesday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 ISM NMI        55.4     53.0 to 57.0                   --   55.3   53.9
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick up       
modestly to a reading of 55.4 in September after a rise to 55.3 in      
August. Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Dallas       
Services index down and the Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index up. The 
flash Markit services index slipped to 55.1 in the month from 56.0 in   
August.                                                                 
Weekly Jobless Claims for September 30 week                             
 Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                  Median         Range               Sep30  Sep23  Sep16
 Weekly Claims      270k      265k to 300k              --   272k   260k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 2,000 to 270,000 in the September 30 week after a 12,000 increase in 
the previous week. Initial and continuing filings in hurricane-impact   
regions should begin to show any back-logged claims in areas where      
filing could not occur in previous weeks. The four-week moving average  
would fall by 7,000 in the coming week as the initial hurricane-impacted
298,000 level in the September 2 week drops out of the calculation,     
assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        
Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)             
 Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median           Range               Aug17   Jul17   Jun17
 Trade Gap   -$42.7b     -$43.9b to -$41.5b           -- -$43.7b -$43.5b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     
$42.7 billion in August. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade 
gap narrowed to $62.9 billion in August, with exports up 0.2% and       
imports down 0.3%.                                                      
Factory Orders for August (percent change)                              
 Thursday, October 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median           Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17
 New Orders    +0.9%      +0.8% to +1.1%                --  -3.3%  +3.2%
 Ex Transport    --             --                      --  +0.5%  +0.1%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in August.   
Durable goods orders rose 1.7% in the month on a rebound in aircraft    
orders, while nondurables orders are expected to see pickup from higher 
energy prices. The impact of Hurricane Harvey should be seen in orders  
and shipments. Factory orders are expected to post a modest gain        
excluding the transportation rebound. Durable orders excluding          
transportation were up 0.2% in the advance estimate.                    
Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                    
 Friday, October 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Payrolls        +78k      -25k to +120k                --  +156k  +189k
 Private Job     +74k      +20k to +110k                --  +165k  +202k
 Jobless Rate    4.4%      4.3% to 4.5%                 --   4.4%   4.3%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4      34.3 to 34.4                 --   34.4   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by only 78,000 in  
September after August's disappointing 156,000 gain. The impact of      
Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma is clearly expected to show up in   
this month's data, adding downside risk. The unemployment rate is       
expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise   
0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The average workweek is   
expected to stay at 34.4 hours, with a downside risk due to the         
hurricanes.                                                             
Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                    
 Friday, October 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median           Range               Aug17   Jul17   Jun17
 Cons Cred   +$14.1b     +$14.0b to +$16.0b           -- +$18.5b +$11.8b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by 14.1 billion in   
August after an $18.5 billion rise in July. Retail sales were down 0.2% 
and were up 0.2% excluding a 1.6% plunge in motor vehicle sales.        
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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