MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +5.4% SA THRU DEC 06 WK

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US DATA: NFP Growth Would Have Been Negative With More Typical Seasonal Factor

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • One thing of note within the report is that the surprisingly soft seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls growth of 12k (cons 100k) came despite the most favorable seasonal adjustment factor for an October since at least 2000.  
  • Our rough calculations find that if the October data had used the Oct’23 seasonal factor, seasonally adjusted payrolls growth would have actually been -46k, i.e. zero growth crudely excluding the strikes.
  • However, a large health warning is needed here as we thought the same thing had happened in September re a particularly favorable factor, which we had been skeptical about.
  • Instead, after latest revisions which saw NSA data actually revised up on net vs large downward revisions to the SA data (NSA revisions were +14k Aug and -10k Sep vs SA revisions -81k Aug and -31k Sep), the Sep’24 seasonal factor looks much more in keeping with recent years.
  • The propensity for large revisions means it can take a couple months before we can draw more accurate conclusions here.  
164 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • One thing of note within the report is that the surprisingly soft seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls growth of 12k (cons 100k) came despite the most favorable seasonal adjustment factor for an October since at least 2000.  
  • Our rough calculations find that if the October data had used the Oct’23 seasonal factor, seasonally adjusted payrolls growth would have actually been -46k, i.e. zero growth crudely excluding the strikes.
  • However, a large health warning is needed here as we thought the same thing had happened in September re a particularly favorable factor, which we had been skeptical about.
  • Instead, after latest revisions which saw NSA data actually revised up on net vs large downward revisions to the SA data (NSA revisions were +14k Aug and -10k Sep vs SA revisions -81k Aug and -31k Sep), the Sep’24 seasonal factor looks much more in keeping with recent years.
  • The propensity for large revisions means it can take a couple months before we can draw more accurate conclusions here.