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US DATA: NFP Growth Would Have Been Negative With More Typical Seasonal Factor

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • One thing of note within the report is that the surprisingly soft seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls growth of 12k (cons 100k) came despite the most favorable seasonal adjustment factor for an October since at least 2000.  
  • Our rough calculations find that if the October data had used the Oct’23 seasonal factor, seasonally adjusted payrolls growth would have actually been -46k, i.e. zero growth crudely excluding the strikes.
  • However, a large health warning is needed here as we thought the same thing had happened in September re a particularly favorable factor, which we had been skeptical about.
  • Instead, after latest revisions which saw NSA data actually revised up on net vs large downward revisions to the SA data (NSA revisions were +14k Aug and -10k Sep vs SA revisions -81k Aug and -31k Sep), the Sep’24 seasonal factor looks much more in keeping with recent years.
  • The propensity for large revisions means it can take a couple months before we can draw more accurate conclusions here.  
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  • One thing of note within the report is that the surprisingly soft seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls growth of 12k (cons 100k) came despite the most favorable seasonal adjustment factor for an October since at least 2000.  
  • Our rough calculations find that if the October data had used the Oct’23 seasonal factor, seasonally adjusted payrolls growth would have actually been -46k, i.e. zero growth crudely excluding the strikes.
  • However, a large health warning is needed here as we thought the same thing had happened in September re a particularly favorable factor, which we had been skeptical about.
  • Instead, after latest revisions which saw NSA data actually revised up on net vs large downward revisions to the SA data (NSA revisions were +14k Aug and -10k Sep vs SA revisions -81k Aug and -31k Sep), the Sep’24 seasonal factor looks much more in keeping with recent years.
  • The propensity for large revisions means it can take a couple months before we can draw more accurate conclusions here.