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US Data Sees Different Reaction Compared To US Rates

CANADA
  • BAX implied yields are holding onto the large increases seen on the upside surprises in US data.
  • This has near-term yields up strongly on the day (Dec’22 +10bps) whilst yields further out have unwound an earlier decline (Dec’23 unch), accelerating inversion through 2023 with 55bp of cuts.
  • On the flip side, the rise in Eurodollars yields is largest in 1H24 which has seen a slight trimming of recent inversion to 67bp of cuts through 2023.
  • The recovery in the Canadian near-term rate hike path is supported by the inflationary pressure evident in Monday’s BoC surveys with the next major driver employment reports on Friday before the BoC decision next Wednesday.

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