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POLAND: US Defence Secretary Arrives In Warsaw, January CPI Eyed

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • Polish officials are holding a series of meetings over the latest developments surrounding Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk yesterday spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the latter was en route to the Munich Security Conference. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth touched down in Poland last night and will today meet with Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and President Andrzej Duda. Polish assets have benefitted from better mood music around the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine in recent weeks, but questions about the odds of closing the deal and securing a lasting peace continue to linger.
  • Dr Jakub Rybacki of the Polish Economic Institute told Money.pl that with the recent zloty appreciation "we are nearing the threshold at which exports become less profitable. The National Bank of Poland indicates that such a level of the exchange rate is around 4 zloty for 1 euro. Further zloty depreciation would reduce the competitiveness of the industry, and we should remember that recent months brought about a decline in activity by around 1% Y/Y." However, he also noted that the impact of exchange-rate weakness is relatively limited, as most Polish exporters import components as well, while larger firms sign long-term deals which allow to smooth out the impact of short-term FX volatility.
  • Statistics Poland will release January CPI data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Consensus is for an acceleration to +5.0% Y/Y from +4.7% in December, but the data will be based on an outdated CPI basket, with a revision due next month.
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  • Polish officials are holding a series of meetings over the latest developments surrounding Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk yesterday spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the latter was en route to the Munich Security Conference. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth touched down in Poland last night and will today meet with Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and President Andrzej Duda. Polish assets have benefitted from better mood music around the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine in recent weeks, but questions about the odds of closing the deal and securing a lasting peace continue to linger.
  • Dr Jakub Rybacki of the Polish Economic Institute told Money.pl that with the recent zloty appreciation "we are nearing the threshold at which exports become less profitable. The National Bank of Poland indicates that such a level of the exchange rate is around 4 zloty for 1 euro. Further zloty depreciation would reduce the competitiveness of the industry, and we should remember that recent months brought about a decline in activity by around 1% Y/Y." However, he also noted that the impact of exchange-rate weakness is relatively limited, as most Polish exporters import components as well, while larger firms sign long-term deals which allow to smooth out the impact of short-term FX volatility.
  • Statistics Poland will release January CPI data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Consensus is for an acceleration to +5.0% Y/Y from +4.7% in December, but the data will be based on an outdated CPI basket, with a revision due next month.