US EIA Gas Storage Draw of 38bcf Estimated: BNEF

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (14:30GMT) is expected to show return to a net withdrawal of 38bcf for the week ending Mar. 22 after a small build last week according to BNEF.

• A Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of 28bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of about 30bcf.
• The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of 40bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of 35bcf.
• Total storage was last week reported at 2,332bcf after the first build of the year of 7bcf on the week. US storage was 678bcf higher than the seasonal average of 1,654bcf and 306bcf higher than the previous 5-year high.
• The expected draw is driven by a 17.3 increase in heating degree days from the previous week. Consumption is forecast to have increased by 4.7bcf/d on the week to 89.9bcf/d driven primarily by a 3.1bcf/d increase in residential/commercial demand and 2.0bcf/d increase in power generation demand.
• Supply is estimated to have fallen by 0.7bcf/d to 85.9bcf/d due to a drop in production.
• The early view for the week ending Mar. 29 is for a withdrawal of 44bcf.
• US Natgas MAY 24 up 1.5% at 1.74$/mmbtu