US EIA Storage Data Expecting Switch to Below Normal Draw of 74bcf: BNEF

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of -74bcf for the week ending Feb 2 according to BNEF. Temperatures across the country warmed following the severe cold weather in mid Jan which resulted in very high withdrawals in the previous two weeks.

• A Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -75bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -201bcf.
• The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -74bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -69bcf.
• Total storage was last week reported at 2,6596bcf after a large -201bcf draw on the week. US storage was 130bcf higher than the seasonal average of 2,529bcf and 112bcf lower than the previous 5-year high.
• Consumption is forecast down by 17.7bcf/d on the week to 100.8bcf/d driven by residential / commercial and power gen demand. Supply is expected to have increased by 0.6bcf/d to 91.0bcf/d.
• The early view for the week ending Feb 9 is a withdrawal of -55bcf.
  • US Natgas MAR 24 down -1.4% at 1.94$/mmbtu