MNI BRIEF: BOI Sees "Modest" Q2 EZ Growth Driven By Services

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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US Orders, Personal Incomes More Resilient Than Expected

DATA REACT
  • Solid rise in core durable goods orders in Jan with +0.9% M/M but perhaps more interesting from a supply side issue perspective was the rise in core shipments, up +1.9% M/M for the largest monthly increase since Jan 2021.
  • Personal incomes were flat vs consensus for a -0.3% M/M decline despite the dropping off in child tax credits, although in real terms this will be sizeable decline, at a time of a large bounce in spending.
  • Core PCE inflation was broadly as expected with the pace almost exactly unchanged in Jan at +0.52% M/M after a small upward revision to 0.53% in Dec (from 0.50%, not 0.47% said earlier).
  • With both demand and supply side faring better than expected, it has only limited new implications for mon pol. Tsys trimmed ~0.5bps on release and BBDXY sitting close to where it was prior to the data but equally influenced by geopol headlines.
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