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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: HSBC At Top End Of Unrounded Analyst CPI Estimates

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • HSBC estimate core CPI at 0.225% M/M in July vs consensus leaning towards a slightly 'low' 0.2% reading, to leave the Y/Y rate steady at 3.3% (3.275% unrounded). 
  • “We expect the core goods CPI was unchanged m-o-m in July, with new vehicle prices unchanged m-o-m and used vehicle prices down 0.8%.” 
  • “We look for a 0.3% m-o-m rise in the weighted average of the rental price indexes (OER and rent of primary residence), the same pace of increase as in June. If realized, this would be the smallest increase in nearly three years.” 
  • “We look for a 0.5% m-o-m rise in airline fares, a 0.5% m-o-m rise in hotel lodging rates, and a 1.0% m-o-m rise in the motor vehicle insurance index.”
  • They see headline CPI at 0.212% M/M, with the Y/Y rate unchanged at 3.0%. 
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