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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

Modi, AMLO Top Major Economy Leader Poll, Macron Last

AUDUSD TECHS

Under Pressure

EURJPY TECHS

Trend Condition Remains Bearish

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                           Jun-18     May-18   Apr-18   Mar-18   Feb-18   Jan-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                      222/226    211/216  233/230  230/225  223/228  247/245
wk 2                      221/225    223/214  233/232  226/223  234/230  226/241
wk 3                      218/221    234/220  209/229  227/225  218/227  229/238
wk 4                                 223/223  211/222  218/225  217/223  234/234
wk 5                                                   242/228
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +223k    +159k    +155k    +324k    +176k
Private Payrolls                       +218k    +162k    +153k    +321k    +188k
Mfg Payroll                             +18k     +25k     +21k     +32k     +20k
Unemployment                            3.8%     3.9%     4.1%     4.1%     4.1%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.5     34.5     34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     41.0     40.9     41.0     40.7
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%    -0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.3%    +0.4%    -0.1%    +1.0%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%
excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%
CPI                                    +0.2%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.5%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Import Prices                          +0.6%    +0.6%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.8%
non-petro import prices                +0.1%    +0.1%     Flat    +0.4%    +0.6%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 79.5     79.3     78.1     74.2     72.7
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.2%     Flat    +0.1%    +0.4%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +2.0%    +2.0%    +1.7%    +1.7%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.8%    +1.8%    +1.5%    +1.5%
Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$146.8  +$214.3  -$208.7  -$215.2   +$49.2
Consumer Credit (bn)                            +$9.3   +$12.3   +$13.8   +$14.5
CB Consumer Confidence      126.4      128.8    125.6    127.0    130.0    124.3
Consumer Sentiment        99.3(a)       98.0     98.8    101.4     99.7     95.7
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     3.0      3.1      3.2      3.3      3.2
Truck Sales (Ex GM),
Saar (mn)                                6.9      6.9      7.0      6.7      6.6
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                 9.9     10.0     10.2     10.0      9.9
Retail Sales                           +0.8%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.1%    -0.1%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.9%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.1%
Personal Income                                 +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.6%    +0.5%     Flat    +0.1%
ISM Mfg Index                           58.7     57.3     59.3     60.8     59.1
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          58.6     56.8     58.8     59.5     59.9
MNI Chicago Report                      62.7     57.6     57.4     61.9     65.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index          19.9       34.4     23.2     22.3     25.8     22.2
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index       39.1       45.3     27.6     30.1     31.0     19.5
Empire State Index           25.0       20.1     15.8     22.5     13.1     17.7
KC Fed Mfg Index                          29       26       17       17       16
Richmond Fed Mfg Index         20         16       -3       15       28       14
Dallas Fed Mfg Index         36.5       26.8     21.8     22.8     38.4     34.3
Markit Mfg Index             54.6       56.4     56.5     55.6     55.3     55.5
Markit Services Index        56.5       56.8     54.6     54.0     55.9     53.3
Ind Production                         -0.1%    +0.9%    +0.5%    +0.4%    -0.4%
Capacity Util                          77.9%    78.1%    77.5%    77.2%    76.9%
Factory Orders                                  -0.8%    +1.7%    +2.0%    -1.6%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Durables                               -0.6%    -1.0%    +2.7%    +4.5%    -4.2%
Durables ex transport                  -0.3%    +1.9%    +0.5%    +1.3%    -0.9%
Nondurables                                     +0.1%    +0.6%    -0.3%    +1.0%
Mfg Shipments                                    Flat    +0.7%    +0.3%    +0.7%
Business Inventories                            +0.3%    -0.1%    +0.6%    +0.6%
Factory                                         +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Retail                             +0.4% (a)    +0.5%    -0.7%      +.6       .6
Wholesale                          +0.5% (a)    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.8%    +0.8%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.350    1.286    1.327     1.29    1.334
Building Permits (mn)              1.301 (a)    1.364    1.377    1.323    1.366
NAHB Index                     68         70       68       70       71       72
New Home Sales (k)                       689      646      671      659      633
Existing Homes (mn)                     5.43     5.45     5.60     5.54     5.38
Pending Home Sales Index               105.9    106.4    107.6    107.2    104.3
Construct Spending                              +1.8%    -1.7%    +1.2%    +1.7%
Private Residential                             +4.5%    -4.1%    +1.0%    +3.2%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$46.2   -$47.2   -$55.5   -$56.7
Exports (bn)                                  +$211.2  +$210.7  +$206.1   $200.9
Imports (bn)                                  +$257.4  +$257.9  +$261.6   $257.6
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$68.3   -$69.3   -$76.7   -$76.7
Leading Index                          +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.7%
                                                Q1-18    Q4-17    Q3-17    Q2-17
GDP (chain-wt)                                  +2.2%    +2.9%    +3.2%    +3.1%
Final Sales                                     +2.0%    +3.4%    +2.4%    +2.9%
Chain prices                                    +1.9%    +2.3%    +2.1%    +1.0%
Current-dollar                                  +4.2%    +5.3%    +5.3%    +4.1%
                                                Q1-18    Q4-17    Q3-17    Q2-17
Nonfarm Productivity                            +0.4%    +0.3%    +2.6%    +1.7%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                        +2.9%    +2.1%    +1.0%    -1.2%
                                                Q1-18    Q4-17    Q3-17    Q2-17
ECI (q/q)                                       +0.8%    +0.6%    +0.7%    +0.5%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]