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US stimulus and Italian politics the talking points

BOND SUMMARY

US fiscal stimulus and the Italian political situation remain the biggest talking points in markets.

  • Treasuries saw a decent pullback yesterday on the back of a CNN report that stimulus could be as much as USD2trn. However, we have since drifted a bit higher and remain above the levels seen at this time yesterday.
  • Renzi has pulled the support of his party from the Italian government. As our political risk team have pointed out, this doesn't necessarily mean there will be snap elections soon. However, the risk of elections has clearly increased and we have seen BTPs react accordingly.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-4+ today at 136-20 with 10y UST yields up 2.7bp at 1.111% and 2y yields up 0.3bp at 0.148%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.06 today at 177.42 with 10y Bund yields down -0.7bp at -0.530% and Schatz yields down -0.5bp at -0.715%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.02 today at 134.19 with 10y yields up 0.1bp at 0.307% and 2y yields down -0.2bp at -0.117%.
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