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US TSYS: Geopol Gains Pared, Jobless Claims Offer Macro Focus

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have mostly retraced their earlier gains seen as geopolitical risk concerns flared after a Russia missile attack on Ukraine with potentially the first use of an ICBM.
  • The curve twist steepens, with cash yields between 1.5bp lower (3s) to 2bps higher (20s).
  • 20s see clear underperformance after yesterday’s weak auction with a large tail and surge in primary dealer take-up.
  • 2s10s meanwhile is little changed at 10bps, consolidating yesterday’s flattening.
  • TYZ4 has reverted to unchanged on the day at 109-22 from an earlier high of 109-28. Volumes are elevated at 680k but boosted by the quarterly roll, earlier than usual ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-08+ (20-day EMA) but bears remain in the driving seat with yesterday’s low at 109-14+ before support at 108-30 (Nov 15 low).
  • Data: Jobless claims (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Nov (0830ET), Existing home sales Oct (1000ET), Conf. Board leading index Oct (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Nov (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack welcome remarks (0845ET), Goolsbee in Q&A (1225ET), Hammack moderates Q&A (1230ET), Schmid speech on longer-term policy (1240ET), Barr discusses banks and AI (1640ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS reopen auction - 91282CLE9 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have mostly retraced their earlier gains seen as geopolitical risk concerns flared after a Russia missile attack on Ukraine with potentially the first use of an ICBM.
  • The curve twist steepens, with cash yields between 1.5bp lower (3s) to 2bps higher (20s).
  • 20s see clear underperformance after yesterday’s weak auction with a large tail and surge in primary dealer take-up.
  • 2s10s meanwhile is little changed at 10bps, consolidating yesterday’s flattening.
  • TYZ4 has reverted to unchanged on the day at 109-22 from an earlier high of 109-28. Volumes are elevated at 680k but boosted by the quarterly roll, earlier than usual ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-08+ (20-day EMA) but bears remain in the driving seat with yesterday’s low at 109-14+ before support at 108-30 (Nov 15 low).
  • Data: Jobless claims (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg Nov (0830ET), Existing home sales Oct (1000ET), Conf. Board leading index Oct (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Nov (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack welcome remarks (0845ET), Goolsbee in Q&A (1225ET), Hammack moderates Q&A (1230ET), Schmid speech on longer-term policy (1240ET), Barr discusses banks and AI (1640ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS reopen auction - 91282CLE9 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)